SimpleFunctions
Winner-take-all · 3 outcomes3 contractsPolymarketrefreshed 6 min agoCloses May 12, 2026 · 3d3pp · 24h

Gangwon FC vs. Daejeon Hana Citizen FC

Leader sits at 39% across 3 bound outcomes, runner-up at 27%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.

Leader probability

39%

Gangwon FC

runner-up 27¢leader 39¢

Outcomes

3

winner-take-all

Runner-up

27¢

Daejeon Hana Citizen FC

Spread

12pp

contested

24h volume

$0

thin orderbook

Closes

May 12, 2026

3 days

Venue

Polymarket

3 bound

30-day trend

0%50%100%-30d-3w-2w-1wtodayGangwon FC: 42% (2 days, 2 points)Gangwon FC: 42% on 2026-05-08Daejeon Hana Citizen FC: 28% (2 days, 2 points)Daejeon Hana Citizen FC: 28% on 2026-05-08Draw (Gangwon FC vs. Daejeon Hana Citizen FC): 27% (2 days, 2 points)Draw (Gangwon FC vs. Daejeon Hana Citizen FC): 27% on 2026-05-08
Gangwon FC42¢Daejeon Hana Citizen FC28¢Draw (Gangwon FC vs. Daejeon Hana Citizen FC)27¢
Top 3 candidates by current price · 2d

Bracket family

How the bracket ladder is priced.

Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.

Analysis

This probability reflects a prediction market's assessment that Gangwon FC has a 42% chance of winning their match against Daejeon Hana Citizen FC, with a 28% chance for Daejeon and 26% for a draw. The K League 1 fixture outcome depends on relative team form, recent head-to-head results, injury status, and home-field advantage. Gangwon's slight edge in implied probability could reflect stronger current standings position, better recent performance, or home-ground status. The match result will be determined on the scheduled fixture date, which would fully resolve this contract. Market pricing typically reflects available public information about both teams' recent performances, squad availability, and tactical matchups, though low trading volume suggests limited liquidity in these specific contracts.

  • Current K League 1 standings position and points differential between Gangwon FC and Daejeon Hana Citizen FC
  • Head-to-head historical win rates and recent form in their last 5-10 matches
  • Confirmed player injuries, suspensions, or unavailability for either team ahead of the fixture
  • Home-field advantage if the match is played at Gangwon's or Daejeon's stadium
  • Recent goal differential and defensive performance trends for both clubs this season

Recently closed in general

These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

More like this

Adjacent prediction questions.

How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.

Last updated on this page: 6 min ago.