Will GBP/USD hit __ in 2026?
Leader sits at 65% across 11 bound outcomes, runner-up at 42%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
↓1.30
Outcomes
11
winner-take-all
Runner-up
42¢
↓1.25
Spread
23pp
contested
24h volume
$1
thin orderbook
Closes
Dec 31, 2026
196 days
Venue
Polymarket
11 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will GBP/USD hit __ in 2026
Will GBP/USD hit __ in 2026?: ↑1.70
0xb455f2…a418
Will GBP/USD hit __ in 2026?: ↑1.60
0xf80dd4…a685
Will GBP/USD hit __ in 2026?: ↑1.40
0xf423fe…36b3
Will GBP/USD hit __ in 2026?: ↓1.00
0xe0701d…2125
Will GBP/USD hit __ in 2026?: ↓1.30
0xd24a13…5119
Will GBP/USD hit __ in 2026?: ↑1.45
0xa24570…22eb
Will GBP/USD hit __ in 2026?: ↓1.10
0x7993ef…eb91
Will GBP/USD hit __ in 2026?: ↓1.20
0x4b35aa…2f8b
Will GBP/USD hit __ in 2026?: ↑1.55
0x4a3de3…9df0
Will GBP/USD hit __ in 2026?: ↑1.50
0x4576f8…eccb
Will GBP/USD hit __ in 2026?: ↓1.25
0x180ed5…8ce3
Analysis
This market estimates a 34% probability that GBP/USD will reach 1.45 or higher at some point during 2026. The pound-dollar exchange rate depends primarily on relative interest rate differentials between the Bank of England and Federal Reserve, as well as economic growth divergence between the UK and US. Currently, GBP/USD trades below 1.45, so reaching this level would require either significant pound appreciation or dollar weakness. The main driver would be monetary policy divergence: if the Fed cuts rates faster than the BoE, or if UK economic data outperforms expectations, the probability would increase. Conversely, renewed US economic strength or BoE hawkishness would reduce it. Key upcoming catalysts include BoE and Fed policy announcements throughout 2026, quarterly GDP releases from both economies, and inflation data that signals diverging monetary trajectories.
- ›Current GBP/USD spot price relative to 1.45 target and the directional trend from current levels
- ›Relative central bank policy paths: comparative rate-cut or hold expectations between Federal Reserve and Bank of England through year-end 2026
- ›UK and US economic growth differentials reflected in PMI data, employment reports, and GDP forecasts
- ›Inflation persistence in both economies and its impact on real interest rate spreads
- ›Geopolitical or trade-related shocks affecting UK exports, US deficit dynamics, or capital flows between the two economies
What moved the line
- Jun 11↓1.30↓8pp83→75¢ · Polymarket
- Jun 17↓1.30↑8pp69→77¢ · Polymarket
- Jun 10↓1.30↑7pp76→83¢ · Polymarket
- Jun 12↓1.30↓5pp75→70¢ · Polymarket
- Jun 13↓1.30↓4pp70→66¢ · Polymarket
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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