Will David Hogg be the next Chair of the Democratic National Committee
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 6% across 14 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
6%
14 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$0
14 contracts
Closes
Jan 8, 2045
6685 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
14 clusters across 14 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will Ben Wikler be the next Chair of the Democratic National Committee
Will Ben Wikler be the next Chair of the Democratic National Committee?: Ben Wikler
KXNEXTDNCCHAIR-45-BWIK
Cluster 2
Will Jane Kleeb be the next Chair of the Democratic National Committee
Will Jane Kleeb be the next Chair of the Democratic National Committee?: Jane Kleeb
KXNEXTDNCCHAIR-45-JKLE
Cluster 3
Will Martin O’Malley be the next Chair of the Democratic National Committee
Will Martin O’Malley be the next Chair of the Democratic National Committee?: Martin O’Malley
KXNEXTDNCCHAIR-45-MOMA
Cluster 4
Will Amanda Litman be the next Chair of the Democratic National Committee
Will Amanda Litman be the next Chair of the Democratic National Committee?: Amanda Litman
KXNEXTDNCCHAIR-45-ALIT
Cluster 5
Will Faiz Shakir be the next Chair of the Democratic National Committee
Will Faiz Shakir be the next Chair of the Democratic National Committee?: Faiz Shakir
KXNEXTDNCCHAIR-45-FSHA
Cluster 6
Will Howard Dean be the next Chair of the Democratic National Committee
Will Howard Dean be the next Chair of the Democratic National Committee?: Howard Dean
KXNEXTDNCCHAIR-45-HDEA
Cluster 7
Will Jaime Harrison be the next Chair of the Democratic National Committee
Will Jaime Harrison be the next Chair of the Democratic National Committee?: Jaime Harrison
KXNEXTDNCCHAIR-45-JHAR
Cluster 8
Will Stacey Abrams be the next Chair of the Democratic National Committee
Will Stacey Abrams be the next Chair of the Democratic National Committee?: Stacey Abrams
KXNEXTDNCCHAIR-45-SABR
Cluster 9
Will Pete Buttigieg be the next Chair of the Democratic National Committee
Will Pete Buttigieg be the next Chair of the Democratic National Committee?: Pete Buttigieg
KXNEXTDNCCHAIR-45-PBUT
Cluster 10
Will Laphonza Butler be the next Chair of the Democratic National Committee
Will Laphonza Butler be the next Chair of the Democratic National Committee?: Laphonza Butler
KXNEXTDNCCHAIR-45-LBUT
Cluster 11
Will Michael Blake be the next Chair of the Democratic National Committee
Will Michael Blake be the next Chair of the Democratic National Committee?: Michael Blake
KXNEXTDNCCHAIR-45-MBLA
Cluster 12
Will Jason Rae be the next Chair of the Democratic National Committee
Will Jason Rae be the next Chair of the Democratic National Committee?: Jason Rae
KXNEXTDNCCHAIR-45-JRAE
Cluster 13
Will Chris Korge be the next Chair of the Democratic National Committee
Will Chris Korge be the next Chair of the Democratic National Committee?: Chris Korge
KXNEXTDNCCHAIR-45-CKOR
Cluster 14
Will James Skoufis be the next Chair of the Democratic National Committee
Will James Skoufis be the next Chair of the Democratic National Committee?: James Skoufis
KXNEXTDNCCHAIR-45-JSKO
Analysis
This market estimates a 5% probability that David Hogg, the gun-control activist, will become the next Democratic National Committee Chair. The current low probability reflects that Hogg lacks traditional party infrastructure credentials and elected office experience typically required for the role, while other candidates like Amanda Litman and Jason Paul command similar odds. The probability could shift upward if Hogg pursues elected office or gains a formal DNC leadership position beforehand, or downward if the party prioritizes candidates with extensive political experience. The position becomes vacant when the current chair departs or when the DNC holds a leadership election, typically following major electoral cycles. Contract pricing suggests substantial uncertainty, with no single candidate commanding dominant odds.
- ›Hogg has no elected political office or previous DNC leadership experience as of June 2026
- ›Competing candidates like Litman and Jason Paul hold similar 5% probabilities, indicating market sees no clear frontrunner
- ›DNC Chair selection typically requires party voting structures or election mechanics not yet officially scheduled
- ›Hogg's public profile is primarily tied to advocacy and media appearances rather than party-building or fundraising roles
- ›At least five distinct candidates with measurable contract odds suggests fragmentation rather than consensus around any particular successor
What moved the line
- Sep 17Faiz Shakir↓9pp17→8¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 17Martin O’Malley↓8pp17→9¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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