Will David Hogg be the next Chair of the Democratic National Committee
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 7% across 12 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
7%
12 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
+2pp
44h ago
24h volume
$0
12 contracts
Closes
Jan 8, 2045
6790 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
12 clusters across 12 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will Martin O’Malley be the next Chair of the Democratic National Committee
Will Martin O’Malley be the next Chair of the Democratic National Committee?: Martin O’Malley
KXNEXTDNCCHAIR-45-MOMA
Cluster 2
Will Faiz Shakir be the next Chair of the Democratic National Committee
Will Faiz Shakir be the next Chair of the Democratic National Committee?: Faiz Shakir
KXNEXTDNCCHAIR-45-FSHA
Cluster 3
Will Andy Beshear be the next Chair of the Democratic National Committee
Will Andy Beshear be the next Chair of the Democratic National Committee?: Andy Beshear
KXNEXTDNCCHAIR-45-ABES
Cluster 4
Will Artie Blanco be the next Chair of the Democratic National Committee
Will Artie Blanco be the next Chair of the Democratic National Committee?: Artie Blanco
KXNEXTDNCCHAIR-45-ABLA
Cluster 5
Will Amanda Litman be the next Chair of the Democratic National Committee
Will Amanda Litman be the next Chair of the Democratic National Committee?: Amanda Litman
KXNEXTDNCCHAIR-45-ALIT
Cluster 6
Will Ben Wikler be the next Chair of the Democratic National Committee
Will Ben Wikler be the next Chair of the Democratic National Committee?: Ben Wikler
KXNEXTDNCCHAIR-45-BWIK
Cluster 7
Will Chris Korge be the next Chair of the Democratic National Committee
Will Chris Korge be the next Chair of the Democratic National Committee?: Chris Korge
KXNEXTDNCCHAIR-45-CKOR
Cluster 8
Will David Hogg be the next Chair of the Democratic National Committee
Will David Hogg be the next Chair of the Democratic National Committee?: David Hogg
KXNEXTDNCCHAIR-45-DHOG
Cluster 9
Will Gretchen Whitmer be the next Chair of the Democratic National Committee
Will Gretchen Whitmer be the next Chair of the Democratic National Committee?: Gretchen Whitmer
KXNEXTDNCCHAIR-45-GWHI
Cluster 10
Will Howard Dean be the next Chair of the Democratic National Committee
Will Howard Dean be the next Chair of the Democratic National Committee?: Howard Dean
KXNEXTDNCCHAIR-45-HDEA
Cluster 11
Will Jaime Harrison be the next Chair of the Democratic National Committee
Will Jaime Harrison be the next Chair of the Democratic National Committee?: Jaime Harrison
KXNEXTDNCCHAIR-45-JHAR
Cluster 12
Will Jane Kleeb be the next Chair of the Democratic National Committee
Will Jane Kleeb be the next Chair of the Democratic National Committee?: Jane Kleeb
KXNEXTDNCCHAIR-45-JKLE
Analysis
This market estimates a 5% probability that David Hogg, the gun-control activist, will become the next Democratic National Committee Chair. The current low probability reflects that Hogg lacks traditional party infrastructure credentials and elected office experience typically required for the role, while other candidates like Amanda Litman and Jason Paul command similar odds. The probability could shift upward if Hogg pursues elected office or gains a formal DNC leadership position beforehand, or downward if the party prioritizes candidates with extensive political experience. The position becomes vacant when the current chair departs or when the DNC holds a leadership election, typically following major electoral cycles. Contract pricing suggests substantial uncertainty, with no single candidate commanding dominant odds.
- ›Hogg has no elected political office or previous DNC leadership experience as of June 2026
- ›Competing candidates like Litman and Jason Paul hold similar 5% probabilities, indicating market sees no clear frontrunner
- ›DNC Chair selection typically requires party voting structures or election mechanics not yet officially scheduled
- ›Hogg's public profile is primarily tied to advocacy and media appearances rather than party-building or fundraising roles
- ›At least five distinct candidates with measurable contract odds suggests fragmentation rather than consensus around any particular successor
What moved the line
- Jun 6Martin O’Malley↓7pp23→16¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 6Faiz Shakir↓4pp20→16¢ · Kalshi
Recently closed in election 2026
- Will the Senate pass a reconciliation bill by...last 97% · 1d
- Andalusia Election: PP # of seats?: 53-55last 48% · 1d
- Andalusia Election: PSOE-A # of seats?: 27-29last 53% · 1d
- Will the White House Press Secretary say Radical Left at her next press briefinglast 15% · 2d
- # of seats won by PPP in South Korea by-elections?: 3last 50% · 2d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
Other questions in election 2026.
In election 2026
Related reading
California & LA Primaries Heat Up: Hilton Surges, Pratt Fades
The California gubernatorial primary and Los Angeles mayoral race are seeing major positioning shifts. Xavier Becerra is the heavy favorite (99¢) in CA, but Steve Hilton surged 7 cents to 96 cents to advance to the runoff. In LA, Spencer Pratt's mayoral bid continues to lose momentum, falling 3 cents to 1 cent, while the Nithya Raman vs Karen Bass matchup solidifies.
California Governor Primary Shakes Up: Hilton Soars, Steyer Crashes
Steve Hilton's probability to advance to the California governor runoff jumped 35¢ to 89¢ after a new poll showed him in second place, while Tom Steyer collapsed 38¢ to 10¢. The runoff now looks likely to be between Becerra and Hilton.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: just now.