Germany BBL
Leader sits at 49% across 14 bound outcomes, runner-up at 15%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Winner: Bayern Munich
Outcomes
14
winner-take-all
Runner-up
15¢
Winner: Bamberg Baskets
Spread
34pp
contested
24h volume
$0
thin orderbook
Closes
May 31, 2026
22 days
Venue
Polymarket
14 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Germany BBL: Winner
Germany BBL: Winner: Bamberg Baskets
0x582482…221a
Germany BBL: Winner: Syntainics MBC (Weißenfels)
0xc63f90…6a7f
Germany BBL: Winner: Ratiopharm Ulm
0x783a12…a24d
Germany BBL: Winner: Rasta Vechta
0x881e44…0d74
Germany BBL: Winner: Niners Chemnitz
0xd5d1e1…27d7
Germany BBL: Winner: EWE Baskets Oldenburg
0xc63405…67f5
Germany BBL: Winner: Veolia Towers Hamburg
0xbe2172…7d46
Germany BBL: Winner: Vet-Concept Gladiators Trier
0xe63158…3a62
Germany BBL: Winner: Telekom Baskets Bonn
0xf29260…108d
Germany BBL: Winner: Fitness First Würzburg Baskets
0x193249…83e7
Germany BBL: Winner: Rostock Seawolves
0x0d6385…b9f2
Germany BBL: Winner: Bayern Munich
0xe9792e…9fab
Germany BBL: Winner: Alba Berlin
0xde61d8…1dc1
Germany BBL: Winner: MHP Riesen Ludwigsburg
0x75128f…ca11
Analysis
This probability represents the market's assessment that Rostock Seawolves will win the 2026 German Basketball League (BBL) championship. The market is currently pricing five teams with nearly identical odds around 50 cents each, indicating genuine uncertainty about the league's outcome. The primary drivers of these prices are recent regular-season performance, roster strength, and playoff seeding, which will be finalized by season's end. The championship will be resolved once the BBL playoff tournament concludes, typically in May or early June, making head-to-head matchups and team health the critical determinants. Volume across contracts is minimal, suggesting limited recent trading activity rather than active price discovery.
- ›Five distinct teams are priced between 49-50 cents, indicating the market sees no clear favorite and expects competitive playoff matchups
- ›Zero trading volume in the past 24 hours across top contracts suggests these prices may not reflect current market sentiment or recent developments
- ›Rostock Seawolves, Würzburg Baskets, and Science City Jena are tied at 50 cents despite potentially different playoff positions and regular-season records
- ›BBL playoff format and seeding structure directly determine matchup difficulty; teams' playoff paths will shift these probabilities materially
- ›The championship outcome depends on quarter-final through final results, compressed into 2-3 weeks, making injury status and roster availability in that window critical variables
What moved the line
- May 6Winner: Veolia Towers Hamburg↓35pp50→15¢ · Polymarket
- May 6Winner: MHP Riesen Ludwigsburg↓34pp49→15¢ · Polymarket
- May 6Winner: Rostock Seawolves↓33pp48→15¢ · Polymarket
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 2 min ago.