Germany vs. Curaçao
Leader sits at 91% across 3 bound outcomes, runner-up at 7%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Germany
Outcomes
3
winner-take-all
Runner-up
7¢
Draw (Germany vs. Curaçao)
Spread
84pp
dominant leader
24h volume
$3K
modest
Closes
Jun 14, 2026
36 days
Venue
Polymarket
3 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Germany vs. Curaçao
Analysis
This probability represents the market's assessment that Curaçao will win an upcoming football match against Germany. The 37% figure reflects significant confidence in a Germany victory, though the high trading volume on the Curaçao contract ($1209 in 24 hours) suggests real disagreement among participants. Germany is the favored team based on historical performance and ranking, but Curaçao odds remain non-negligible given that football matches involve inherent uncertainty. The primary drivers of this probability are team form, player availability, and tactical matchup dynamics. Resolution will occur when the match is completed, with the outcome determined by final score at full time (or extra time/penalties if applicable). Current contract prices show Germany heavily favored at 93¢ versus Curaçao at 3¢, indicating the market has priced in Germany as a clear favorite despite the aggregate showing 37% for Curaçao, suggesting potential data aggregation or contract specification differences.
- ›Germany holds a significant FIFA ranking and historical head-to-head advantage over Curaçao in international football matchups
- ›Trading volume concentration on the Curaçao contract ($1209 vs $196 for Germany) indicates disagreement on the true probability despite 93¢-3¢ price disparity
- ›Team form, injury status, and recent competitive results for both sides will directly influence match outcome
- ›Match timing and venue location affect playing conditions and home-field advantage dynamics
- ›The 37% probability implies roughly 1-in-3 odds for a Curaçao victory, reflecting non-trivial upset potential in football
What moved the line
- May 2Germany↓6pp95→89¢ · Polymarket
- May 6Germany↑5pp89→94¢ · Polymarket
- May 7Draw (Germany vs. Curaçao)↑4pp6→10¢ · Polymarket
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 3 min ago.