SimpleFunctions
Winner-take-all · 3 outcomes3 contractsPolymarketrefreshed 3 h agoCloses May 9, 2026 · 0d

Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs. Incheon United FC

Leader sits at 42% across 3 bound outcomes, runner-up at 30%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.

Leader probability

42%

Gimcheon Sangmu FC

runner-up 30¢leader 42¢

Outcomes

3

winner-take-all

Runner-up

30¢

Draw (Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs.

Spread

12pp

contested

24h volume

$582

thin orderbook

Closes

May 9, 2026

0 days

Venue

Polymarket

3 bound

30-day trend

0%50%100%-30d-3w-2w-1wtodayGimcheon Sangmu FC: 40% on 2026-05-06Draw (Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs. Incheon United FC): 30% (2 days, 2 points)Draw (Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs. Incheon United FC): 30% on 2026-05-07Incheon United FC: 32% (2 days, 2 points)Incheon United FC: 32% on 2026-05-07
Gimcheon Sangmu FC40¢Draw (Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs. Incheon United FC)30¢Incheon United FC32¢
Top 3 candidates by current price · 2d

Bracket family

How the bracket ladder is priced.

Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.

Analysis

The market currently prices Gimcheon Sangmu FC as a 42% favorite to win this match, with Incheon United FC at 35% and a draw at 33%. This represents near-even odds across all three outcomes, reflecting genuine uncertainty about the result. The probability reflects recent form, head-to-head history, and current league standing between these K League teams. Key factors include recent win-loss records, injuries or suspensions affecting key players, and home-field advantage. The match outcome will be definitively resolved when the game concludes, with the winner determined by final score or penalty shootout if applicable. Trading volume remains inactive at present, suggesting limited recent market conviction around this specific fixture.

  • Recent form and goals scored/conceded by each team in their last 5-10 K League matches
  • Head-to-head record and performance patterns in prior meetings between Gimcheon Sangmu and Incheon United
  • Availability of key players due to injury, suspension, or international duty at match time
  • Current league standings and points differential that may influence playing style or risk tolerance
  • Whether the match is played at a neutral venue or one team's home ground, and historical home advantage statistics for each side

Recently closed in general

These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

More like this

Adjacent prediction questions.

How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.

Last updated on this page: 3 h ago.