Goiás EC vs. Vila Nova FC
Leader sits at 45% across 3 bound outcomes, runner-up at 31%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Goiás EC
Outcomes
3
winner-take-all
Runner-up
31¢
Draw (Goiás EC vs. Vila Nova
Spread
14pp
contested
24h volume
$77
thin orderbook
Closes
May 9, 2026
0 days
Venue
Polymarket
3 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Goiás EC vs. Vila Nova FC
Analysis
The probability represents traders' assessment that Vila Nova FC has a 38% chance of winning this match against Goiás EC, with Goiás EC at 37% and a draw at 32%. The market is effectively pricing this as a competitive encounter with no clear favorite. Outcomes depend on team form, injuries, home-field advantage, and recent head-to-head performance. The match result will resolve this uncertainty when the game is played, likely determining whether Vila Nova or Goiás advances or whether points are split in what appears to be a closely-matched contest.
- ›Current market prices show Vila Nova FC (38¢) only 1¢ ahead of Goiás EC (37¢), indicating traders view this as an evenly contested fixture
- ›Draw probability at 32¢ suggests meaningful likelihood of a stalemate, reducing confidence in either team's ability to secure a decisive victory
- ›Recent form, head-to-head records, and injury status of key players would materially shift odds in either team's favor
- ›Home-field advantage (if applicable) and squad depth at kickoff could be deciding factors in a match where markets see no statistical edge
- ›Match will be conclusively resolved upon final whistle, eliminating current uncertainty between these three outcome states
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 3 h ago.