When will Scottie Scheffler have his next win
Leader sits at 44% across 5 bound outcomes, runner-up at 32%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
U.S. Open
Outcomes
5
winner-take-all
Runner-up
32¢
CJ Cup Byron Nelson
Spread
12pp
contested
24h volume
$86
thin orderbook
Closes
Sep 15, 2026
114 days
Venue
Kalshi
5 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
When will Scottie Scheffler have his next win
When will Scottie Scheffler have his next win?: CJ Cup Byron Nelson
KXGOLFNEXTWIN-SSCH-THCCBN26
When will Scottie Scheffler have his next win?: U.S. Open
KXGOLFNEXTWIN-SSCH-USO26
When will Scottie Scheffler have his next win?: Travelers Championship
KXGOLFNEXTWIN-SSCH-TRAC26
When will Scottie Scheffler have his next win?: Memorial Tournament
KXGOLFNEXTWIN-SSCH-MEM26
When will Scottie Scheffler have his next win?: British Open
KXGOLFNEXTWIN-SSCH-BRITO26
Analysis
This market reflects expectations that Scottie Scheffler will not record a tournament victory within a specified timeframe, currently priced at 28% probability. The relatively low confidence in an imminent win suggests traders are factoring in recent competitive performance, recovery from injury or recent poor form, or a naturally selective schedule of major events. The CJ Cup Byron Nelson in late October carries the highest implied probability among specific tournaments at 30¢, indicating it's seen as his most likely near-term opportunity. Key variables affecting this probability include Scheffler's current form and health status, the difficulty and field strength of upcoming tournaments, and whether major championships (British Open, U.S. Open) command disproportionate focus from the betting market. Resolution depends on actual tournament results over the coming months.
- ›Scheffler's recent competitive record and current world ranking, which would directly affect win probability
- ›Volume concentration on CJ Cup Byron Nelson (30¢) versus major championships suggests market believes near-term wins are more likely than major championship victories
- ›Injury status or time away from competition would materially shift probabilities, as recovery timelines affect tournament participation
- ›Field strength and tournament difficulty of upcoming events—smaller fields or weaker fields would increase win odds more than major championships
- ›Market pricing across eight distinct outcomes shows 28% 'no win' as only marginally leading; runner-up at 27% indicates high uncertainty across scenarios
What moved the line
- May 20CJ Cup Byron Nelson↑12pp15→27¢ · Kalshi
- May 23Travelers Championship↓12pp20→8¢ · Kalshi
- May 22Memorial Tournament↑11pp7→18¢ · Kalshi
- May 21Travelers Championship↑10pp4→14¢ · Kalshi
- May 21CJ Cup Byron Nelson↓9pp27→18¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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