Will it be reported that the United States Department of State issues one or more United States passports to U.S. citizens where the passport contains an image or visual representation of Donald Trump’s face before Jan 1, 2027
Leader sits at 85% across 5 bound outcomes, runner-up at 82%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Before Jan 1, 2027
Outcomes
5
winner-take-all
Runner-up
82¢
Before Sep 1, 2026
Spread
3pp
contested
24h volume
$1K
modest
Closes
Jan 1, 2027
237 days
Venue
Kalshi
5 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will it be reported that the United States Department of State issues one or more United States passports to U.S. citizens where the passport contains an image or visual representation of Donald Trump’s face before
Will it be reported that the United States Department of State issues one or more United States passports to U.S. citizens where the passport contains an image or visual representation of Donald Trump’s face before Jul 4, 2026?: Before Jul 4, 2026
KXTRUMPPASSPORT-26-JUL04
Will it be reported that the United States Department of State issues one or more United States passports to U.S. citizens where the passport contains an image or visual representation of Donald Trump’s face before Jan 1, 2027?: Before Jan 1, 2027
KXTRUMPPASSPORT-26-JAN01
Will it be reported that the United States Department of State issues one or more United States passports to U.S. citizens where the passport contains an image or visual representation of Donald Trump’s face before Sep 1, 2026?: Before Sep 1, 2026
KXTRUMPPASSPORT-26-SEP01
Will it be reported that the United States Department of State issues one or more United States passports to U.S. citizens where the passport contains an image or visual representation of Donald Trump’s face before Aug 1, 2026?: Before Aug 1, 2026
KXTRUMPPASSPORT-26-AUG01
Will it be reported that the United States Department of State issues one or more United States passports to U.S. citizens where the passport contains an image or visual representation of Donald Trump’s face before Jul 20, 2026?: Before Jul 20, 2026
KXTRUMPPASSPORT-26-JUL20
Analysis
This market estimates an 85% chance that the U.S. Department of State will issue at least one passport featuring Donald Trump's likeness before January 1, 2027. The high probability reflects market expectations that such a decision is likely within the next eight months, though the tighter odds on the August deadline (79%) suggest uncertainty about timing. Key drivers include whether the Trump administration formally authorizes commemorative or special-edition passports and whether the State Department implements such an initiative before year-end. The earliest decision point appears around early July 2026 (27% probability), with confidence climbing significantly by August. Movement will depend on official announcements from State Department leadership and any legislative actions or directives concerning passport design.
- ›State Department authorization: Whether leadership issues a formal directive to mint passports with Trump imagery, which would typically require departmental approval
- ›Timing window: The sharp probability drop from 85% (Jan 1, 2027) to 27% (Jul 4, 2026) indicates markets expect resolution or implementation between July and September 2026
- ›Precedent and process: Whether commemorative or special-edition U.S. passports featuring political figures have been issued before, and the typical timeline for design and production approval
- ›Official announcement: Any public statement, press release, or reported policy decision from State Department officials regarding Trump-branded passport initiatives
- ›Media verification requirement: The resolution criterion requires public reporting of actual issuance—proposed but unimplemented plans would not satisfy the market condition
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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