SimpleFunctions
Winner-take-all · 4 outcomes4 contractsPolymarketrefreshed 4 min agoCloses Jun 7, 2026 · 29d

Greek Basketball League

Leader sits at 50% across 4 bound outcomes, runner-up at 49%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.

Leader probability

50%

Winner: AEK Athens

runner-up 49¢leader 50¢

Outcomes

4

winner-take-all

Runner-up

49¢

Winner: PAOK Thessaloniki

Spread

1pp

contested

24h volume

$0

thin orderbook

Closes

Jun 7, 2026

29 days

Venue

Polymarket

4 bound

30-day trend

0%50%100%-30d-3w-2w-1wtodayWinner: AEK Athens: 50% (12 days, 10 points)Winner: AEK Athens: 50% on 2026-05-08Winner: PAOK Thessaloniki: 50% (12 days, 8 points)Winner: PAOK Thessaloniki: 50% on 2026-05-07Winner: Panathinaikos Athens: 48% (12 days, 12 points)Winner: Panathinaikos Athens: 48% on 2026-05-08
Winner: AEK Athens50¢Winner: PAOK Thessaloniki50¢Winner: Panathinaikos Athens48¢
Top 3 candidates by current price · 12d

Bracket family

How the bracket ladder is priced.

Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.

Analysis

The Greek Basketball League probability reflects market expectations around the 2025-26 season championship, with multiple strong contenders making the outcome competitive. Olympiacos Piraeus is priced lowest at 42%, while Panathinaikos Athens and AEK Athens are closer to 50%, indicating near-parity among top teams. Season performance through the spring would be the primary driver of shifting probabilities, as teams demonstrate their depth and consistency against competition. The championship will resolve in late May or early June 2026 when the playoff finals conclude. Current low trading volume suggests limited market conviction, and team-specific factors like roster stability, injury status, and playoff momentum would significantly influence final outcomes.

  • Olympiacos Piraeus is priced 7-8 cents below the next favorites, indicating market perception of slightly lower championship odds despite historical strength
  • Panathinaikos Athens and AEK Athens are priced identically near 50%, suggesting nearly equal perceived probability between these traditional powerhouses
  • Trading volume is zero across all visible contracts in the last 24 hours, reflecting minimal market activity and low certainty in current prices
  • The Greek Basketball League championship resolves via playoff competition in late May-June 2026, with outcomes dependent on in-season performance and playoff bracket dynamics
  • International Basketball Champions League contracts appear in the data, indicating some market interest extends beyond domestic competition outcomes

What moved the line

  • May 6Winner: Olympiacos Piraeus7pp3340¢ · Polymarket
  • May 7Winner: PAOK Thessaloniki6pp4450¢ · Polymarket
  • May 6Winner: PAOK Thessaloniki5pp4944¢ · Polymarket
  • May 2Winner: Olympiacos Piraeus5pp4035¢ · Polymarket

Recently closed in general

These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

More like this

Adjacent prediction questions.

How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.

Last updated on this page: 4 min ago.