Grêmio FBPA vs. CR Flamengo - More Markets
Leader sits at 71% across 9 bound outcomes, runner-up at 51%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
O/U 1.5
Outcomes
9
winner-take-all
Runner-up
51¢
Both Teams to Score
Spread
20pp
contested
24h volume
$46
thin orderbook
Closes
May 10, 2026
1 days
Venue
Polymarket
9 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Grêmio FBPA vs. CR Flamengo - More Markets
Grêmio FBPA vs. CR Flamengo - More Markets: Grêmio FBPA (-2.5)
0xa11f15…8dc4
Grêmio FBPA vs. CR Flamengo - More Markets: O/U 1.5
0xa764e9…01bf
Grêmio FBPA vs. CR Flamengo - More Markets: O/U 4.5
0x2bd680…2348
Grêmio FBPA vs. CR Flamengo - More Markets: O/U 3.5
0xb44deb…71d1
Grêmio FBPA vs. CR Flamengo - More Markets: O/U 2.5
0xe4851c…27b7
Grêmio FBPA vs. CR Flamengo - More Markets: CR Flamengo (-2.5)
0x98c378…b0d7
Grêmio FBPA vs. CR Flamengo - More Markets: CR Flamengo (-1.5)
0x2ca84b…c4be
Grêmio FBPA vs. CR Flamengo - More Markets: Both Teams to Score
0xc0000a…8b4e
Grêmio FBPA vs. CR Flamengo - More Markets: Grêmio FBPA (-1.5)
0x2babcb…bacb
Analysis
The market is pricing an 51% probability that both Grêmio and Flamengo will score in their upcoming match. This outcome sits notably higher than markets on Grêmio winning by specific margins (10-12%), suggesting traders view a competitive, open match more likely than a dominant performance by either side. The probability is driven by both teams' recent offensive and defensive form—higher-scoring matches between top-tier Brazilian clubs typically reflect balanced attacking capabilities and moderate defensive vulnerabilities. The outcome will be determined by the match itself, with factors including lineup availability, weather conditions, and tactical approaches all influencing whether both teams find the net. Resolution is straightforward and occurs immediately upon match completion.
- ›Recent goal-scoring rates for both Grêmio and Flamengo in league play compared to their defensive records
- ›Head-to-head match history between these clubs, including typical match patterns and defensive solidity
- ›Confirmed player availability, injuries, or suspensions affecting either team's offensive or defensive lineup
- ›Match venue and time, as home-field advantage and crowd energy can influence attacking play
- ›Current league standings and competitive motivation—teams fighting for positions may approach the match differently than those with secured standings
What moved the line
- May 8Both Teams to Score↑4pp47→51¢ · Polymarket
- May 8CR Flamengo (-2.5)↓4pp12→8¢ · Polymarket
- May 8Grêmio FBPA (-1.5)↓3pp13→10¢ · Polymarket
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 5 min ago.