Grêmio Novorizontino vs. Botafogo FC
Leader sits at 54% across 3 bound outcomes, runner-up at 28%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Grêmio Novorizontino
Outcomes
3
winner-take-all
Runner-up
28¢
Draw (Grêmio Novorizontino v
Spread
26pp
contested
24h volume
$0
thin orderbook
Closes
May 11, 2026
2 days
Venue
Polymarket
3 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Grêmio Novorizontino vs. Botafogo FC
Analysis
The current pricing reflects market expectation that Grêmio Novorizontino has a 53% chance of defeating Botafogo FC, with a 28% probability of a draw and 18% for Botafogo to win. The leader's elevated probability likely reflects recent form, head-to-head record, or home-field advantage if applicable. This match represents a competitive fixture in Brazilian football where outcome uncertainty remains substantial—nearly half the probability mass sits on non-Grêmio results. The resolution depends on match-day performance on the scheduled date, with factors like team injuries, lineup changes, and tactical adjustments influencing final odds into kickoff. Current volume on synthetic contracts is minimal, suggesting limited recent trading activity and potentially wider bid-ask spreads.
- ›Grêmio Novorizontino's 53% implied win probability exceeds the draw (28%) and Botafogo (18%) combined only marginally, indicating meaningful uncertainty rather than a strong favorite
- ›Recent team form, goal-scoring record, and defensive metrics for both clubs in the weeks preceding this fixture will inform whether the current probability reflects current competitive state
- ›Injury status of key players for either side—especially starting attackers or defensive leaders—represents a concrete variable that could shift pricing materially before match day
- ›Head-to-head record and venue (home/away split) if this is a league match with established home-field effects, are historically predictive factors in Brazilian football
- ›Volume and bid-ask spreads on the three contracts remain at zero in the last 24 hours, suggesting the 53% price may reflect minimal recent consensus revision and could shift with fresh trading activity
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 6 min ago.