What will the price of GTA VI be
Leader sits at 96% across 5 bound outcomes, runner-up at 73%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
More than $60
Outcomes
5
winner-take-all
Runner-up
73¢
More than $70
Spread
23pp
contested
24h volume
$4K
modest
Closes
Jan 1, 2030
1333 days
Venue
Kalshi
5 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
What will the price of GTA VI be
What will the price of GTA VI be?: More than $70
KXGTAPRICE-70
What will the price of GTA VI be?: More than $80
KXGTAPRICE-80
What will the price of GTA VI be?: More than $100
KXGTAPRICE-100
What will the price of GTA VI be?: More than $90
KXGTAPRICE-90
What will the price of GTA VI be?: More than $60
KXGTAPRICE-60
Analysis
This probability represents the likelihood that Grand Theft Auto VI will be priced above $90 at launch. The 23-percentage-point gap between prediction venues reflects genuine uncertainty about Rockstar Games' pricing strategy. Recent AAA game launches have ranged from $60 to $70 for standard editions, with premium versions commanding higher prices. The key tension centers on whether GTA VI's scale and development costs justify a price increase beyond industry norms, or whether competitive pressure keeps it aligned with current standards. Official pricing announcement from Rockstar or major retailers would resolve most uncertainty. Until then, traders are divided between those expecting premium pricing for a flagship title and those betting on price stability.
- ›Rockstar Games' official announcement date for GTA VI pricing remains unscheduled; release is fall 2025
- ›Recent comparable AAA titles (2023-2025) launched at $60-$70 standard edition, with $90+ premium versions representing 20-30% of sales
- ›Kalshi traders (42% average) anticipate above-$90 pricing more than Polymarket traders (19%), suggesting different base assumptions about publisher strategy
- ›GPU inflation and development cost trajectory increased 15-20% since GTA V launch in 2013
- ›Next-gen console pricing and PlayStation/Xbox standard game pricing remain stable anchors for industry expectations
What moved the line
- May 6More than $70↑9pp61→70¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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