Gwangju FC vs. FC Seoul
Leader sits at 41% across 3 bound outcomes, runner-up at 35%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Gwangju FC
Outcomes
3
winner-take-all
Runner-up
35¢
FC Seoul
Spread
6pp
contested
24h volume
$37
thin orderbook
Closes
May 12, 2026
3 days
Venue
Polymarket
3 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Gwangju FC vs. FC Seoul
Analysis
The 42% probability reflects traders' assessment that Gwangju FC is more likely than not to defeat FC Seoul in an upcoming match, though the outcome remains uncertain with meaningful probability assigned to both a draw (30%) and an FC Seoul victory. The current odds likely reflect recent team form, head-to-head records, and home-field advantage if applicable. Key drivers of price movement would include injury reports affecting either squad's lineup, shifts in recent performance trends, or betting-market consensus adjusting as match day approaches. The primary uncertainty resolver is the scheduled match itself, which will definitively determine the outcome and settle all contracts. Until that event occurs, the probability may fluctuate based on pre-match news, team announcements, or changes in aggregate market sentiment across available contracts.
- ›Gwangju FC is priced at 42% to win, suggesting traders view it as favored but not heavily favored
- ›The draw is valued at 30%, indicating meaningful probability of a non-decisive result
- ›Zero 24-hour trading volume on both contracts suggests limited recent market activity and potentially wider bid-ask spreads
- ›The third outcome (FC Seoul win) is implied at approximately 28%, making this relatively competitive across all three possibilities
- ›Price movements will likely accelerate as the match date nears and pre-match team news (injuries, lineup changes) becomes available
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 5 min ago.