Gwangju FC vs. FC Seoul - More Markets
Leader sits at 65% across 9 bound outcomes, runner-up at 54%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
O/U 1.5
Outcomes
9
winner-take-all
Runner-up
54¢
O/U 2.5
Spread
11pp
contested
24h volume
$0
thin orderbook
Closes
May 12, 2026
3 days
Venue
Polymarket
9 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Gwangju FC vs. FC Seoul - More Markets
Gwangju FC vs. FC Seoul - More Markets: Gwangju FC (-1.5)
0x133821…3401
Gwangju FC vs. FC Seoul - More Markets: Gwangju FC (-2.5)
0x421910…a326
Gwangju FC vs. FC Seoul - More Markets: FC Seoul (-1.5)
0xdd7a98…1b16
Gwangju FC vs. FC Seoul - More Markets: Both Teams to Score
0x52adad…5b4d
Gwangju FC vs. FC Seoul - More Markets: O/U 4.5
0x1763cf…e833
Gwangju FC vs. FC Seoul - More Markets: O/U 3.5
0xc3a79e…1e9c
Gwangju FC vs. FC Seoul - More Markets: O/U 2.5
0x3ac1ac…9f08
Gwangju FC vs. FC Seoul - More Markets: O/U 1.5
0xddaec3…2255
Gwangju FC vs. FC Seoul - More Markets: FC Seoul (-2.5)
0x3fdde9…422a
Analysis
The 51% probability reflects market expectations that both Gwangju FC and FC Seoul will score in their upcoming match. This outcome sits notably above the runner-up option at 33%, suggesting participants view a two-goal game as more likely than a single-team victory by a specific margin. The probability is influenced by both teams' recent attacking form and defensive vulnerabilities—teams with stronger offensive records and weaker defenses typically increase the likelihood of mutual scoring. The K League match itself serves as the resolution event; once the game concludes and final scoring is recorded, this uncertainty fully resolves. Market pricing shows minimal trading volume across these contracts, indicating low liquidity and wider bid-ask spreads typical of less-watched fixtures.
- ›Gwangju FC's recent goal-scoring frequency compared to their season average
- ›FC Seoul's defensive record and goals-conceded rate in recent matches
- ›Head-to-head history between these teams regarding both-teams-to-score outcomes
- ›Each team's current injury status affecting key offensive or defensive players
- ›Match venue and historical scoring patterns in Gwangju vs. Seoul locations
What moved the line
- May 8O/U 4.5↑5pp26→31¢ · Polymarket
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 6 min ago.