SimpleFunctions
Winner-take-all · 9 outcomes9 contractsPolymarketrefreshed 6 min agoCloses May 12, 2026 · 3d14pp · 24h

Gwangju FC vs. FC Seoul - More Markets

Leader sits at 65% across 9 bound outcomes, runner-up at 54%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.

Leader probability

65%

O/U 1.5

runner-up 54¢leader 65¢

Outcomes

9

winner-take-all

Runner-up

54¢

O/U 2.5

Spread

11pp

contested

24h volume

$0

thin orderbook

Closes

May 12, 2026

3 days

Venue

Polymarket

9 bound

30-day trend

0%50%100%-30d-3w-2w-1wtodayO/U 1.5: 63% on 2026-05-08O/U 2.5: 53% on 2026-05-08O/U 3.5: 36% (2 days, 2 points)O/U 3.5: 36% on 2026-05-08
O/U 1.563¢O/U 2.553¢O/U 3.536¢
Top 3 candidates by current price · 2d

Bracket family

How the bracket ladder is priced.

Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.

Analysis

The 51% probability reflects market expectations that both Gwangju FC and FC Seoul will score in their upcoming match. This outcome sits notably above the runner-up option at 33%, suggesting participants view a two-goal game as more likely than a single-team victory by a specific margin. The probability is influenced by both teams' recent attacking form and defensive vulnerabilities—teams with stronger offensive records and weaker defenses typically increase the likelihood of mutual scoring. The K League match itself serves as the resolution event; once the game concludes and final scoring is recorded, this uncertainty fully resolves. Market pricing shows minimal trading volume across these contracts, indicating low liquidity and wider bid-ask spreads typical of less-watched fixtures.

  • Gwangju FC's recent goal-scoring frequency compared to their season average
  • FC Seoul's defensive record and goals-conceded rate in recent matches
  • Head-to-head history between these teams regarding both-teams-to-score outcomes
  • Each team's current injury status affecting key offensive or defensive players
  • Match venue and historical scoring patterns in Gwangju vs. Seoul locations

What moved the line

  • May 8O/U 4.55pp2631¢ · Polymarket

Recently closed in general

These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

More like this

Adjacent prediction questions.

How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.

Last updated on this page: 6 min ago.