Haiti vs. Scotland
Leader sits at 66% across 3 bound outcomes, runner-up at 19%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Scotland
Outcomes
3
winner-take-all
Runner-up
19¢
Draw (Haiti vs. Scotland)
Spread
47pp
contested
24h volume
$724
thin orderbook
Closes
Jun 14, 2026
36 days
Venue
Polymarket
3 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Haiti vs. Scotland
Analysis
This 35% probability reflects market expectations that Haiti will defeat Scotland in an upcoming match. The current level balances Haiti's recent form and home-field considerations against Scotland's historically stronger competitive standing. The probability could shift significantly based on team roster availability, recent injury reports, or betting patterns in the final hours before kickoff. The match outcome itself—scheduled for a specific date—will ultimately resolve this contract. Cross-venue variation between Kalshi (31%) and Polymarket (35%) suggests some disagreement about Haiti's winning chances, though both platforms assign Scotland as the more likely victor overall.
- ›Draw contract trading at 18¢ on Polymarket indicates roughly 18% implied probability that neither team wins in regulation
- ›Scotland contract on Kalshi at 64¢ (implying 64% win probability) trades substantially higher than Haiti's 10¢ on the same venue, showing strong market consensus favoring Scotland
- ›4 percentage-point gap between venues suggests incomplete price discovery or different trader composition; Polymarket's higher Haiti probability may reflect different risk appetite or information
- ›Haiti contract volume is minimal across venues ($0-$50 in 24h volume), indicating limited recent trading activity and potentially wider bid-ask spreads
- ›Related Morocco vs. Haiti contract at 28¢ on Polymarket may reflect overlapping player fatigue or scheduling factors if matches occur in close succession
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 4 min ago.