Hamarkameratene vs. IK Start - More Markets
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 50% across 5 Polymarket contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
—
not bound
Polymarket
50%
5 contracts
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$882
5 contracts
Closes
May 6, 2026
0 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
5 clusters across 5 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 22% of their title tokens — “Kawasaki Frontale vs. Tōkyō Verdy - More Markets: Tōkyō Verdy” vs “Beijing Guoan FC vs. Dalian Yingbo FC - More Markets: O/U 2.5”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Kawasaki Frontale vs. Tōkyō Verdy - More Markets: Tōkyō Verdy
Kawasaki Frontale vs. Tōkyō Verdy - More Markets: Tōkyō Verdy (-1.5)
0x2ae2eb…68c8
Cluster 2
Beijing Guoan FC vs. Dalian Yingbo FC - More Markets: O/U 2.5
Beijing Guoan FC vs. Dalian Yingbo FC - More Markets: O/U 2.5
0xd0a2f0…02d4
Cluster 3
Yunnan Yukun FC vs. Zhejiang Zhiye FC - More Markets: O/U 2.5
Yunnan Yukun FC vs. Zhejiang Zhiye FC - More Markets: O/U 2.5
0xc6f8d0…d7bf
Cluster 4
Wuhan San Zhen FC vs. Qingdao Hainiu FC - More Markets: O/U 2.5
Wuhan San Zhen FC vs. Qingdao Hainiu FC - More Markets: O/U 2.5
0x4612ca…3182
Cluster 5
Shanghai Haigang FC vs. Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC - More Markets: O/U 2.5
Shanghai Haigang FC vs. Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC - More Markets: O/U 2.5
0x64562d…92f6
Analysis
This market reflects a 50-50 probability that Hamarkameratene will achieve a specific outcome against IK Start in an upcoming match or fixture. The even split suggests genuine uncertainty among traders about the likely result, with neither team viewed as a clear favorite based on current assessments. The probability could shift upward if recent form data, injury reports, or head-to-head records favor Hamarkameratene, or downward if IK Start demonstrates superior recent performance or roster strength. The scheduled match date itself represents the critical event that will resolve this uncertainty, as the actual result will determine the contract outcome. Traders are essentially weighing current team strength, recent performance trends, and any available situational factors to assess whether this matchup favors either side equally or leans toward one competitor.
- ›Recent match results and win-loss records for both Hamarkameratene and IK Start across their last 5-10 games
- ›Head-to-head historical performance between these two teams in previous matchups
- ›Current player availability, confirmed injuries, or roster changes affecting either team
- ›Home/away status and venue advantage for the specific scheduled fixture
- ›League standings position and momentum trajectory of both teams as of the match date
What moved the line
- May 6Tōkyō Verdy (-1.5)↓20pp26→6¢ · Polymarket
- May 6O/U 2.5↑9pp62→71¢ · Polymarket
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
Adjacent prediction questions.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 1 d ago.