Hamarkameratene vs. Vålerenga Fotball - More Markets: Vålerenga Fotball (-2.5)
Leader sits at 18% across 2 bound outcomes, runner-up at 9%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Vålerenga Fotball (-1.5)
Outcomes
2
winner-take-all
Runner-up
9¢
Vålerenga Fotball (-2.5)
Spread
9pp
contested
24h volume
$62
thin orderbook
Closes
May 8, 2026
0 days
Venue
Polymarket
2 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Hamarkameratene vs. Vålerenga Fotball - More Markets: Vålerenga Fotball
Analysis
This market prices the probability that Vålerenga Fotball will win by 2.5 or more goals against Hamarkameratene at 36%, meaning the market currently favors either a narrower Vålerenga victory or a Hamarkameratene win or draw. The probability reflects expected form, head-to-head history, and home/away advantage between two Norwegian football clubs. Movement in this contract would depend on team news such as injuries, lineup changes, or recent performance trends that shift expectations about goal differential. The upcoming match itself represents the only catalyst that resolves this contract; the outcome is determined entirely by the final scoreline on match day. Liquidity remains minimal, with no 24-hour trading volume recorded, suggesting limited market interest or positioning at present.
- ›Current odds imply roughly a 1-in-3 chance of a 2.5+ goal Vålerenga victory, with two-thirds probability assigned to alternative outcomes (Hamarkameratene win, draw, or narrow Vålerenga win)
- ›No 24-hour volume on either contract indicates sparse market participation, making the stated probabilities potentially more sensitive to small trades or less reflective of broad consensus
- ›The gap between the -1.5 spread (36%) and -2.5 spread (31%) suggests modest incremental confidence in Vålerenga's ability to extend a narrow lead to a decisive margin
- ›The match resolution date and final scoreline are the only inputs that determine settlement; no interim data releases or announcements will alter the contract
- ›Relative team strength, recent form, injuries, and historical performance in goal-differential scenarios are the primary analytical inputs for evaluating whether 36% accurately reflects true underlying probability
What moved the line
- May 7Vålerenga Fotball (-1.5)↓4pp21→17¢ · Polymarket
- May 8Vålerenga Fotball (-2.5)↑3pp7→10¢ · Polymarket
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 2 contracts (18% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 1 d ago.