Will a human case of Andes virus in United States be reported before Jun 1, 2026
Leader sits at 63% across 9 bound outcomes, runner-up at 55%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Spain
Outcomes
9
winner-take-all
Runner-up
55¢
United Kingdom
Spread
8pp
contested
24h volume
$19K
liquid
Closes
Jun 1, 2026
23 days
Venue
Kalshi
9 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will a human case of Andes virus
Will a human case of Andes virus in Germany be reported before Jun 1, 2026?: Germany
KXHANTACOUNTRY-26-GER
Will a human case of Andes virus in United States be reported before Jun 1, 2026?: United States
KXHANTACOUNTRY-26-USA
Will a human case of Andes virus in Spain be reported before Jun 1, 2026?: Spain
KXHANTACOUNTRY-26-SPA
Will a human case of Andes virus in France be reported before Jun 1, 2026?: France
KXHANTACOUNTRY-26-FR
Will a human case of Andes virus in United Kingdom be reported before Jun 1, 2026?: United Kingdom
KXHANTACOUNTRY-26-UK
Will a human case of Andes virus in Canada be reported before Jun 1, 2026?: Canada
KXHANTACOUNTRY-26-CAN
Will a human case of Andes virus in Japan be reported before Jun 1, 2026?: Japan
KXHANTACOUNTRY-26-JAP
Will a human case of Andes virus in India be reported before Jun 1, 2026?: India
KXHANTACOUNTRY-26-IND
Will a human case of Andes virus in China be reported before Jun 1, 2026?: China
KXHANTACOUNTRY-26-CHI
What moved the line
- May 8United States↑26pp17→43¢ · Kalshi
- May 8Spain↑26pp10→36¢ · Kalshi
- May 8Canada↑8pp9→17¢ · Kalshi
- May 8United Kingdom↑7pp9→16¢ · Kalshi
- May 8Germany↑4pp9→13¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
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In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 3 min ago.