Winner-take-all · 5 outcomes5 contractsKalshirefreshed 1 min agoCloses May 9, 2026 · 0d

Will the high temp in Philadelphia be 62-63° on Apr 21, 2026

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Leader sits at 43% across 5 bound outcomes, runner-up at 24%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.

Leader probability

43%

68° to 69°

0¢runner-up 24¢leader 43¢

Outcomes

winner-take-all

Runner-up

24¢

70° to 71°

Spread

19pp

contested

24h volume

$4K

modest

Closes

May 9, 2026

0 days

Venue

Kalshi

5 bound

Top contract →Read as answer

Bracket family

How the bracket ladder is priced.

Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.

Cluster 1

will the high temp in philadelphia

5 contracts$4K

OutcomePrice24hVolumeVenueDetail

Will the **high temp in Philadelphia** be <66° on May 9, 2026?: 65° or below

KXHIGHPHIL-26MAY09-T66

4¢—$1KK→

Will the **high temp in Philadelphia** be 68-69° on May 9, 2026?: 68° to 69°

KXHIGHPHIL-26MAY09-B68.5

43¢—$1KK→

Will the **high temp in Philadelphia** be 72-73° on May 9, 2026?: 72° to 73°

KXHIGHPHIL-26MAY09-B72.5

5¢—$695K→

Will the **high temp in Philadelphia** be 66-67° on May 9, 2026?: 66° to 67°

KXHIGHPHIL-26MAY09-B66.5

20¢—$624K→

Will the **high temp in Philadelphia** be 70-71° on May 9, 2026?: 70° to 71°

KXHIGHPHIL-26MAY09-B70.5

24¢—$305K→

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How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.

Last updated on this page: 1 min ago.

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