Hokkaidō Consadole Sapporo vs. AC Nagano Parceiro
Leader sits at 60% across 3 bound outcomes, runner-up at 22%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Hokkaidō Consadole Sapporo
Outcomes
3
winner-take-all
Runner-up
22¢
Draw (Hokkaidō Consadole Sap
Spread
38pp
contested
24h volume
$288
thin orderbook
Closes
May 6, 2026
0 days
Venue
Polymarket
3 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Hokkaidō Consadole Sapporo vs. AC Nagano Parceiro
Hokkaidō Consadole Sapporo vs. AC Nagano Parceiro: Hokkaidō Consadole Sapporo
0x138f6b…2b05
Hokkaidō Consadole Sapporo vs. AC Nagano Parceiro: Draw (Hokkaidō Consadole Sapporo vs. AC Nagano Parceiro)
0xdd765c…86d6
Hokkaidō Consadole Sapporo vs. AC Nagano Parceiro: AC Nagano Parceiro
0x9bd3d8…a2f1
Analysis
This contracts reflect traders' assessment that Hokkaidō Consadole Sapporo is slightly favored to win this matchup against AC Nagano Parceiro. The 50% probability for Sapporo, against 39% for Nagano, suggests modest confidence rather than a decisive expectation. Market pricing typically reflects recent form, head-to-head records, and home-field advantage considerations. The resolution will depend on the teams' relative strength on the scheduled match date—factors including squad depth, current league position, and injury status would influence whether the current pricing holds or shifts. The relatively low trading volume across contracts suggests limited market conviction, meaning substantial new information or late lineup changes could shift probabilities noticeably before kickoff.
- ›Hokkaidō Consadole Sapporo's current league standing, recent win-loss record, and goal differential compared to AC Nagano Parceiro
- ›Historical head-to-head results and goal margins between these two clubs over the past 2-3 seasons
- ›Team sheet availability 24-48 hours before match: absences of key players, suspensions, or surprise roster decisions
- ›Home-field location and travel fatigue, as ground advantage typically affects J-League match outcomes measurably
- ›AC Nagano Parceiro's defensive record and attacking efficiency in recent matches relative to Sapporo's defensive vulnerabilities
What moved the line
- May 6Hokkaidō Consadole Sapporo↑28pp49→77¢ · Polymarket
- May 6Draw (Hokkaidō Consadole Sapporo vs. AC Nagano Parceiro)↓23pp40→17¢ · Polymarket
- May 6AC Nagano Parceiro↓16pp29→13¢ · Polymarket
- May 3AC Nagano Parceiro↓11pp40→29¢ · Polymarket
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 1 d ago.