Hokkaidō Consadole Sapporo vs. AC Nagano Parceiro - More Markets
Leader sits at 78% across 9 bound outcomes, runner-up at 54%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
O/U 1.5
Outcomes
9
winner-take-all
Runner-up
54¢
O/U 2.5
Spread
24pp
contested
24h volume
$31
thin orderbook
Closes
May 6, 2026
0 days
Venue
Polymarket
9 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Hokkaidō Consadole Sapporo vs. AC Nagano Parceiro - More Markets
Hokkaidō Consadole Sapporo vs. AC Nagano Parceiro - More Markets: O/U 2.5
0x12cb79…e2fd
Hokkaidō Consadole Sapporo vs. AC Nagano Parceiro - More Markets: Both Teams to Score
0x3d9112…2eaf
Hokkaidō Consadole Sapporo vs. AC Nagano Parceiro - More Markets: O/U 4.5
0x2d6f52…eee5
Hokkaidō Consadole Sapporo vs. AC Nagano Parceiro - More Markets: O/U 3.5
0x49ed80…fb98
Hokkaidō Consadole Sapporo vs. AC Nagano Parceiro - More Markets: O/U 1.5
0x2e6bb7…5304
Hokkaidō Consadole Sapporo vs. AC Nagano Parceiro - More Markets: AC Nagano Parceiro (-2.5)
0x0f2b3b…9e2a
Hokkaidō Consadole Sapporo vs. AC Nagano Parceiro - More Markets: Hokkaidō Consadole Sapporo (-2.5)
0x50d1b1…dd2f
Hokkaidō Consadole Sapporo vs. AC Nagano Parceiro - More Markets: AC Nagano Parceiro (-1.5)
0x3db89e…85f4
Hokkaidō Consadole Sapporo vs. AC Nagano Parceiro - More Markets: Hokkaidō Consadole Sapporo (-1.5)
0xcca25a…c845
Analysis
This market reflects traders' estimate that both Hokkaidō Consadole Sapporo and AC Nagano Parceiro will score at least one goal each in their upcoming match, currently priced at 55% likelihood. The probability sits notably above the moneyline probability for either team winning alone (around 50%), suggesting modest confidence in an open, two-sided contest rather than a defensive stalemate or dominant one-team performance. Key drivers include both teams' recent offensive output and defensive vulnerabilities in the J2 League, along with venue and weather conditions on match day. The outcome will be determined once the final whistle sounds and the score is confirmed, making this particularly sensitive to team form, injury status, and tactical adjustments in the days leading up to kickoff.
- ›Both clubs' recent scoring frequency and defensive records in J2 League matches provide the baseline expectation for goal probability
- ›Availability of key attacking and defensive personnel, particularly injuries affecting either team's lineup depth
- ›Match location and weather conditions on game day, which typically influence passing accuracy and shooting efficiency
- ›Historical head-to-head scoring patterns between these specific opponents
- ›Trading volume and contract prices across related markets (O/U 2.5, O/U 1.5, and moneyline) show low recent activity, meaning prices may not reflect late-breaking team news
What moved the line
- May 6AC Nagano Parceiro (-1.5)↓30pp38→8¢ · Polymarket
- May 6O/U 4.5↓24pp34→10¢ · Polymarket
- May 6AC Nagano Parceiro (-2.5)↓20pp33→13¢ · Polymarket
- May 6O/U 2.5↓17pp54→37¢ · Polymarket
- May 6Both Teams to Score↓17pp55→38¢ · Polymarket
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 1 d ago.