Hokkaidō Consadole Sapporo vs. Iwaki FC - More Markets
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 31% across 20 Polymarket contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
—
not bound
Polymarket
31%
20 contracts
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$379
20 contracts
Closes
May 6, 2026
0 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
2 clusters across 20 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 0% of their title tokens — “Hokkaidō Consadole Sapporo vs. AC Nagano Parceiro” vs “RB Ōmiya Ardija vs. Iwaki FC - More Markets”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Hokkaidō Consadole Sapporo vs. AC Nagano Parceiro
Hokkaidō Consadole Sapporo vs. AC Nagano Parceiro: Hokkaidō Consadole Sapporo
0x138f6b…2b05
Hokkaidō Consadole Sapporo vs. AC Nagano Parceiro: Draw (Hokkaidō Consadole Sapporo vs. AC Nagano Parceiro)
0xdd765c…86d6
Hokkaidō Consadole Sapporo vs. AC Nagano Parceiro: AC Nagano Parceiro
0x9bd3d8…a2f1
Hokkaidō Consadole Sapporo vs. AC Nagano Parceiro - More Markets: O/U 2.5
0x12cb79…e2fd
Hokkaidō Consadole Sapporo vs. AC Nagano Parceiro - More Markets: Hokkaidō Consadole Sapporo (-1.5)
0xcca25a…c845
Hokkaidō Consadole Sapporo vs. AC Nagano Parceiro - More Markets: AC Nagano Parceiro (-2.5)
0x0f2b3b…9e2a
Hokkaidō Consadole Sapporo vs. AC Nagano Parceiro - More Markets: O/U 4.5
0x2d6f52…eee5
Hokkaidō Consadole Sapporo vs. AC Nagano Parceiro - More Markets: O/U 1.5
0x2e6bb7…5304
Hokkaidō Consadole Sapporo vs. AC Nagano Parceiro - More Markets: Hokkaidō Consadole Sapporo (-2.5)
0x50d1b1…dd2f
Hokkaidō Consadole Sapporo vs. AC Nagano Parceiro - More Markets: O/U 3.5
0x49ed80…fb98
Hokkaidō Consadole Sapporo vs. AC Nagano Parceiro - More Markets: AC Nagano Parceiro (-1.5)
0x3db89e…85f4
Hokkaidō Consadole Sapporo vs. AC Nagano Parceiro - More Markets: Both Teams to Score
0x3d9112…2eaf
Cluster 2
RB Ōmiya Ardija vs. Iwaki FC - More Markets
RB Ōmiya Ardija vs. Iwaki FC - More Markets: O/U 1.5
0x2195c5…48b0
RB Ōmiya Ardija vs. Iwaki FC - More Markets: RB Ōmiya Ardija (-1.5)
0xe2879d…4d3a
RB Ōmiya Ardija vs. Iwaki FC - More Markets: O/U 3.5
0x0f34a8…10f8
RB Ōmiya Ardija vs. Iwaki FC - More Markets: O/U 4.5
0x728f89…870a
RB Ōmiya Ardija vs. Iwaki FC - More Markets: RB Ōmiya Ardija (-2.5)
0x8e56cc…7711
RB Ōmiya Ardija vs. Iwaki FC - More Markets: Iwaki FC (-2.5)
0x129775…a1cd
RB Ōmiya Ardija vs. Iwaki FC - More Markets: Both Teams to Score
0xbb1f4e…b486
RB Ōmiya Ardija vs. Iwaki FC - More Markets: Iwaki FC (-1.5)
0x3783e6…bf0a
Analysis
This 31% probability reflects market participants' assessment that Iwaki FC will achieve a specific outcome against Hokkaidō Consadole Sapporo, likely a win or draw depending on the contract terms. The probability sits below even odds, suggesting traders view Consadole as the favored side given their typical competitive standing in the J-League hierarchy. The level depends primarily on recent form for both teams, current injury status, and head-to-head historical patterns. The resolution will be determined when the match is played, which represents the primary event that will eliminate uncertainty around this outcome. Market participants are trading based on team strength assessments, home-field advantage factors, and any available tactical information about squad composition.
- ›Hokkaidō Consadole Sapporo's league position and recent win-loss record versus Iwaki FC's current standing and form
- ›Historical head-to-head results between the two clubs and any consistent advantages in direct matchups
- ›Confirmed player availability on match day, including injuries to key starters that would materially affect competitive balance
- ›Home-field location and any documented performance patterns for either team at their respective stadiums
- ›The scheduled match date and any weather or environmental factors known to affect play at Sapporo's venue
What moved the line
- May 6AC Nagano Parceiro (-1.5)↓30pp38→8¢ · Polymarket
- May 6Hokkaidō Consadole Sapporo↑28pp49→77¢ · Polymarket
- May 6O/U 4.5↓24pp34→10¢ · Polymarket
- May 6Iwaki FC (-2.5)↓24pp35→11¢ · Polymarket
- May 6Draw (Hokkaidō Consadole Sapporo vs. AC Nagano Parceiro)↓23pp40→17¢ · Polymarket
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 1 d ago.