Hokkaidō Consadole Sapporo vs. RB Ōmiya Ardija
Leader sits at 38% across 3 bound outcomes, runner-up at 34%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Hokkaidō Consadole Sapporo
Outcomes
3
winner-take-all
Runner-up
34¢
RB Ōmiya Ardija
Spread
4pp
contested
24h volume
$494
thin orderbook
Closes
May 9, 2026
0 days
Venue
Polymarket
3 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Hokkaidō Consadole Sapporo vs. RB Ōmiya Ardija
Hokkaidō Consadole Sapporo vs. RB Ōmiya Ardija: RB Ōmiya Ardija
0x539507…a2e4
Hokkaidō Consadole Sapporo vs. RB Ōmiya Ardija: Hokkaidō Consadole Sapporo
0x714db1…9d58
Hokkaidō Consadole Sapporo vs. RB Ōmiya Ardija: Draw (Hokkaidō Consadole Sapporo vs. RB Ōmiya Ardija)
0xeff5cd…d7d7
Analysis
This probability reflects a 48% chance that Hokkaidō Consadole Sapporo wins their match against RB Ōmiya Ardija, with a 39% probability of a draw and 13% implied for an Ōmiya victory. The market assessment leans slightly toward Sapporo but indicates genuine uncertainty. Current pricing is driven by recent form, head-to-head records, and squad availability, while the outcome will be determined by the scheduled match result. Contract volume has been minimal, suggesting limited trader activity and potentially wide bid-ask spreads. Shifts in probability would likely reflect late-breaking team news—injuries to key players, lineup changes, or roster updates—in the days before kickoff. The resolution point is the official final score of the fixture, which would settle all contracts immediately upon match completion.
- ›Recent J-League standings and points differential between Sapporo and Ōmiya as of late April 2026
- ›Head-to-head record in the last 3–5 matchups between these clubs, including home and away performance splits
- ›Confirmed squad availability: absences due to injury, international call-ups, or suspension for either team
- ›Current form trend over the last 5–10 matches for each club (wins, losses, goals for/against)
- ›Home-field advantage significance and historical conversion rates at Sapporo's venue versus Ōmiya's record in away matches
What moved the line
- May 7Hokkaidō Consadole Sapporo↓4pp39→35¢ · Polymarket
- May 8Hokkaidō Consadole Sapporo↑4pp35→39¢ · Polymarket
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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