Hokkaidō Consadole Sapporo vs. RB Ōmiya Ardija - More Markets: O/U 4.5
Leader sits at 80% across 4 bound outcomes, runner-up at 57%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
O/U 1.5
Outcomes
4
winner-take-all
Runner-up
57¢
O/U 2.5
Spread
23pp
contested
24h volume
$112
thin orderbook
Closes
May 9, 2026
0 days
Venue
Polymarket
4 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Hokkaidō Consadole Sapporo vs. RB Ōmiya Ardija - More Markets: O/U
Hokkaidō Consadole Sapporo vs. RB Ōmiya Ardija - More Markets: O/U 1.5
0xe1dc5d…a561
Hokkaidō Consadole Sapporo vs. RB Ōmiya Ardija - More Markets: O/U 2.5
0x0932fd…227a
Hokkaidō Consadole Sapporo vs. RB Ōmiya Ardija - More Markets: O/U 3.5
0x031cc0…32e4
Hokkaidō Consadole Sapporo vs. RB Ōmiya Ardija - More Markets: O/U 4.5
0x65fad9…390e
Analysis
This market is asking whether a soccer match between Hokkaidō Consadole Sapporo and RB Ōmiya Ardija will produce more than 4.5 total goals. The current 61% probability favoring over 1.5 goals (reflected in the leading contract price) suggests traders believe a low-scoring outcome is more likely, with the 33¢ price on the over 4.5 contract indicating skepticism about a high-scoring game. The probability distribution across multiple goal thresholds reflects uncertainty about both teams' offensive and defensive capabilities relative to historical performance. The match result will provide definitive resolution once played. Market depth appears limited, with zero 24-hour volume across contracts, suggesting thin liquidity and potentially wider bid-ask spreads.
- ›Recent goal-scoring trends for both Sapporo and Ōmiya in J-League play, including average goals per match and clean sheet frequency
- ›Head-to-head historical scoring patterns between these two clubs in prior season matchups
- ›Current form and injury status of key attacking and defensive players for each team
- ›League-wide goal-scoring averages in the current season to establish baseline scoring environment
- ›Match venue, weather conditions forecast, and any tactical adjustments known before kickoff
What moved the line
- May 7O/U 4.5↓4pp24→20¢ · Polymarket
- May 8O/U 3.5↑3pp38→41¢ · Polymarket
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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