Hokkaidō Consadole Sapporo vs. RB Ōmiya Ardija - More Markets: RB Ōmiya Ardija (-2.5)
Leader sits at 17% across 2 bound outcomes, runner-up at 6%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
RB Ōmiya Ardija (-1.5)
Outcomes
2
winner-take-all
Runner-up
6¢
RB Ōmiya Ardija (-2.5)
Spread
11pp
contested
24h volume
$0
thin orderbook
Closes
May 9, 2026
0 days
Venue
Polymarket
2 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Hokkaidō Consadole Sapporo vs. RB Ōmiya Ardija - More Markets: RB Ōmiya Ardija
Analysis
This probability reflects market expectations that RB Ōmiya Ardija will win their upcoming match against Hokkaidō Consadole Sapporo by more than 2.5 goals. At 33%, the market assigns this outcome roughly one-third likelihood, suggesting most participants expect either a closer result or a Consadole victory. Current trading is thin with negligible 24-hour volume across the two linked contracts, indicating limited recent market activity or consensus-building. The probability would likely rise if Ōmiya enters the match with strong recent form or if Consadole faces injury problems, and would fall if Consadole shows improved defensive performance or Ōmiya struggles in training. The match itself will definitively resolve this contract upon completion, making the final scoreline the primary catalyst determining the outcome.
- ›Relative team form and goal-scoring efficiency in J-League matches immediately preceding this fixture
- ›Recent head-to-head scoring patterns between these two clubs, particularly whether matches tend to be high-scoring or defensive
- ›Availability of key attacking and defensive players for both teams, which directly impacts scoring capacity
- ›Current league position and goal differential for both sides, reflecting their typical match outcomes
- ›Ōmiya's recent streak of wins/losses by specific margins, indicating whether blowout victories are part of their recent pattern
What moved the line
- May 8RB Ōmiya Ardija (-1.5)↓5pp37→32¢ · Polymarket
- May 7RB Ōmiya Ardija (-1.5)↑4pp33→37¢ · Polymarket
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 2 contracts (17% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 3 h ago.