1
Leader sits at 91% across 2 bound outcomes, runner-up at 8%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
0
Outcomes
2
winner-take-all
Runner-up
8¢
1
Spread
83pp
dominant leader
24h volume
$0
thin orderbook
Closes
Jun 1, 2026
23 days
Venue
Kalshi
2 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will the number of U.S. House Representatives expelled before June 2026 be exactly
Analysis
This probability reflects the likelihood that no U.S. House Representatives will be expelled between now and June 2026. House expulsion requires a two-thirds supermajority vote and is historically rare—only five members have been expelled since 1900. The current 91% price suggests markets view expulsion as unlikely over the next month, but not impossible. The main factor supporting this level is the high procedural bar for expulsion and the absence of ongoing formal expulsion proceedings as of early May 2026. However, expulsion probabilities could shift rapidly if new misconduct allegations emerge against sitting members or if an existing investigation reaches a critical stage. The resolution of any pending ethics investigations or the introduction of expulsion resolutions in the coming weeks would be the primary catalyst for price movement. Current low trading volume ($5 in 24 hours) indicates limited market attention to this outcome.
- ›No active expulsion resolutions have been introduced or are pending as of early May 2026
- ›House expulsion requires a 2/3 supermajority vote and has occurred only 5 times since 1900
- ›Any new credible expulsion-triggering allegations or ethics findings in the next month could materially increase the probability of at least one expulsion
- ›The 91% price implies roughly a 1-in-11 chance of at least one expulsion by June 30, 2026
- ›Low 24-hour trading volume ($5) suggests minimal market conviction or attention to this binary outcome
Recently closed in general
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- Will any member of Trump's Cabinet leave before Aug 2026last 85% · 1d
- What will any participating candidate say during South Carolina GOP gubernatorial debatenolast 7% · 1d
- FC Gifu vs. Matsumoto Yamaga FC - More Marketslast 74% · 2d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 2 contracts (91% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 1 min ago.