How high will Polymarket's mindshare go by June 30?
Leader sits at 70% across 3 bound outcomes, runner-up at 27%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
80%
Outcomes
3
winner-take-all
Runner-up
27¢
85%
Spread
43pp
contested
24h volume
$0
thin orderbook
Closes
Jun 30, 2026
52 days
Venue
Polymarket
3 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
How high will Polymarket's mindshare go by June 30
Analysis
This market estimates a 66% probability that Polymarket's mindshare will reach 80% by June 30, 2026. Mindshare refers to the percentage of online discourse, trading volume, or user engagement captured by Polymarket relative to competing prediction platforms. The current pricing reflects moderately confident expectations that the platform will achieve substantial market dominance over the next two months. Key drivers include Polymarket's recent regulatory clarity in the U.S., competitive positioning against platforms like Kalshi, and overall growth in prediction market adoption. The resolution depends on measurable metrics tracked by market observers—likely web traffic, trading volume, social media mentions, or user base comparisons. June 30 serves as a hard deadline; any major regulatory setback or competitor surge before that date would materially affect this outcome.
- ›Polymarket's current trading volume and user engagement relative to Kalshi and other competing platforms in May 2026
- ›U.S. regulatory developments affecting prediction market operations between now and end of June
- ›Marketing activity and user acquisition efforts by Polymarket compared to direct competitors over the next 8 weeks
- ›Definition and measurement methodology for 'mindshare' that the market operator will use to determine the 80% threshold
- ›Whether macro events (economic data, election developments) drive heightened interest in prediction markets generally or shift volume between platforms
What moved the line
- May 280%↓13pp83→70¢ · Polymarket
- May 690%↑6pp9→15¢ · Polymarket
- May 685%↑3pp22→25¢ · Polymarket
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
Adjacent prediction questions.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 4 min ago.