How many Tornadoes in the US in April?
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 96% across 1 Polymarket contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
—
not bound
Polymarket
96%
1 contract
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$2K
1 contracts
Closes
May 10, 2026
1 days
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
How many Tornadoes in the US in April
How many Tornadoes in the US in April?: 290–319
0x824b5b…7729
Analysis
This contract predicts whether April 2026 saw between 140 and 169 tornadoes in the United States. The current 57% probability suggests this outcome is viewed as slightly more likely than not, though substantial uncertainty remains across the six possible tornado count ranges. Tornado frequency varies significantly based on atmospheric conditions, seasonal patterns, and regional weather systems. The probability reflects both historical April tornado data and real-time weather patterns observed during the month. Markets typically reprice tornado contracts as April concludes and preliminary data becomes available from the Storm Data and Unusual Weather Phenomena database maintained by NOAA. The key driver of price movement will be the official tornado count released after April ends, which consolidates reports from the National Weather Service and other meteorological sources. Until final verification occurs, traders weigh historical April averages against any unusual weather activity that occurred during the month.
- ›Historical April tornado frequency typically ranges 100-180, with 1991-2020 average around 110-120 events
- ›April 2026 weather patterns and atmospheric setup, particularly severe weather outbreaks or unusually calm conditions compared to climatological norms
- ›NOAA Storm Data official count release and verification process, which determines which contract settles as winner
- ›Distribution of market pricing across all six outcome brackets indicates uncertainty about exact count rather than consensus on any single range
- ›Runner-up contract at 39% probability suggests alternative ranges (potentially 170-199 or 100-139 tornadoes) retain meaningful trader support
What moved the line
- May 3290–319↑20pp23→43¢ · Polymarket
- May 7290–319↓13pp39→26¢ · Polymarket
- May 6290–319↓4pp43→39¢ · Polymarket
- May 2290–319↓3pp26→23¢ · Polymarket
- May 8290–319↑3pp26→29¢ · Polymarket
Recently closed in general
- What will Donald Trump say during CNBClast 95% · 1d
- Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms: D Senate, R Houselast 3% · 1d
- Will any member of Trump's Cabinet leave before Aug 2026last 85% · 1d
- What will any participating candidate say during South Carolina GOP gubernatorial debatenolast 7% · 1d
- FC Gifu vs. Matsumoto Yamaga FC - More Marketslast 74% · 2d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 1 contract (96% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 8 h ago.