How much will be wagered on US sports betting in 2026?
Leader sits at 93% across 4 bound outcomes, runner-up at 79%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
>$140B
Outcomes
4
winner-take-all
Runner-up
79¢
>$160B
Spread
14pp
contested
24h volume
$0
thin orderbook
Closes
Jan 1, 2027
237 days
Venue
Polymarket
4 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
How much will be wagered on US sports betting in 2026
How much will be wagered on US sports betting in 2026?: >$140B
0x7cbd0b…377d
How much will be wagered on US sports betting in 2026?: >$160B
0xdb86d9…d9f4
How much will be wagered on US sports betting in 2026?: >$200B
0x2b71d3…7086
How much will be wagered on US sports betting in 2026?: >$180B
0x22e3eb…8082
Analysis
This probability reflects moderate consensus that total US sports wagering will exceed $180 billion in 2026. The 48% reading sits between Kalshi's 52% assessment and Polymarket's 40%, indicating genuine disagreement about whether the industry will reach this threshold. The estimate depends on sustained growth in legal sports betting adoption across states and online platforms following years of expansion since federal restrictions eased. Key drivers include the trajectory of state-by-state legalization, consumer participation rates, and average bet sizes. The market faces uncertainty because 2026 is far enough in the future that regulatory changes or economic shifts could meaningfully alter wagering volumes. The lack of recent trading activity ($0 volume on Polymarket) suggests this contract may not yet be actively reassessed by traders as the year progresses and actual data emerges.
- ›Current state-by-state legal sports betting penetration and pipeline of new state approvals through 2026
- ›Observed year-over-year growth rates in handle from existing legal markets in 2024-2025
- ›Economic conditions and consumer discretionary spending trends that would affect betting participation
- ›Regulatory or legislative changes at federal or state level that could restrict or accelerate market expansion
- ›Average bet size trends and frequency of player activity as retention and acquisition strategies evolve
What moved the line
- May 3>$140B↑14pp57→71¢ · Polymarket
- May 8>$140B↑11pp74→85¢ · Polymarket
- May 6>$200B↑7pp30→37¢ · Polymarket
- May 2>$140B↑6pp51→57¢ · Polymarket
- May 7>$140B↑5pp69→74¢ · Polymarket
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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