HUDL FDV above ___ one day after launch?
Leader sits at 43% across 6 bound outcomes, runner-up at 42%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
$100M
Outcomes
6
winner-take-all
Runner-up
42¢
$200M
Spread
1pp
contested
24h volume
$0
thin orderbook
Closes
Jan 1, 2027
237 days
Venue
Polymarket
6 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
HUDL FDV above ___ one day after launch
HUDL FDV above ___ one day after launch?: $50M
0x778056…5aa4
HUDL FDV above ___ one day after launch?: $20M
0x11f1fe…6aae
HUDL FDV above ___ one day after launch?: $200M
0x515470…1982
HUDL FDV above ___ one day after launch?: $10M
0xaad51b…ff6f
HUDL FDV above ___ one day after launch?: $400M
0x578e35…25d5
HUDL FDV above ___ one day after launch?: $100M
0xc60589…ee11
Analysis
This contract predicts whether HUDL's fully diluted valuation will exceed $10 million one day after its token launch. A 43% probability suggests near even odds, reflecting significant uncertainty about initial market pricing. The valuation outcome depends primarily on launch timing, initial token distribution mechanics, and comparable valuations of similar projects at their debuts. Trading volume across related FDV contracts ($3,800-$6,000 daily) indicates modest but sustained interest in this category. Resolution occurs automatically one day post-launch through on-chain data verification. Key drivers include HUDL's pre-launch community size, token allocation structure, exchange listing decisions, and broader crypto market conditions at launch date. The disparity between bullish comparables ($50M+ thresholds trading near 94 cents) and bearish ones ($800M thresholds at 17 cents) shows market fragmentation on what constitutes a successful launch valuation.
- ›HUDL's token distribution mechanism: larger initial allocations and lower lock-up periods typically produce higher day-one FDVs
- ›Pre-launch community metrics: follower counts, Discord/Telegram engagement, and previous project signals as predictors of trading interest
- ›Exchange listing scope: inclusion on major centralized exchanges versus DEX-only launches materially affects price discovery and trading volume
- ›Comparable project benchmarks: similar token launches typically establish $10-50M FDV ranges within 24 hours depending on positioning
- ›Market conditions on launch date: broader crypto volatility, BTC/ETH price action, and competing token releases influence capital allocation to new projects
What moved the line
- May 6$50M↓22pp45→23¢ · Polymarket
- May 3$100M↓8pp45→37¢ · Polymarket
- May 2$400M↓8pp39→31¢ · Polymarket
- May 6$400M↑8pp28→36¢ · Polymarket
- May 6$200M↑7pp35→42¢ · Polymarket
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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