Hyperbeat FDV above ___ one day after launch?
Leader sits at 31% across 3 bound outcomes, runner-up at 6%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
$50M
Outcomes
3
winner-take-all
Runner-up
6¢
$100M
Spread
25pp
contested
24h volume
$0
thin orderbook
Closes
Jan 1, 2027
237 days
Venue
Polymarket
3 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Hyperbeat FDV above ___ one day after launch
Analysis
This market estimates a 31% probability that Hyperbeat's fully diluted valuation will exceed $100 million on its first day of trading. The relatively low probability reflects skepticism about achieving this valuation threshold immediately at launch. Key drivers of this estimate include comparable token launch valuations in the market and historical precedent for new projects entering trading—projects rarely command nine-figure FDVs on day one unless backed by exceptional market conditions or extraordinary demand. The primary uncertainty will resolve on Hyperbeat's launch date, when trading commences and market price discovery establishes the actual FDV. Until then, this probability tracks sentiment about the project's perceived quality and market appetite for its token relative to other launches.
- ›Comparable launches: Other similar projects in the prediction market sample (Predict.fun at 94¢, Billions at 89¢) suggest very different probability distributions for lower valuation thresholds, indicating market fragmentation on launch valuations
- ›Liquidity and volume context: Current 24-hour volumes on related contracts ($3,800-$6,000) are moderate, suggesting the market reflects genuine uncertainty rather than settled consensus
- ›Valuation threshold sensitivity: The $100M FDV threshold is relatively high for day-one trading; related contracts show much higher prices for lower thresholds ($50M at 94¢), establishing the magnitude of uncertainty at this level
- ›Polymarket consolidation: Data aggregates only three contracts with an average of 14%, creating a gap between leader (31%) and mean, indicating potential disagreement or low total liquidity across the set
- ›No scheduled catalyst identified: Resolution depends entirely on Hyperbeat's launch timing and initial market price discovery, with no announced date or precedent data yet available
What moved the line
- May 7$200M↓3pp7→4¢ · Polymarket
- May 7$100M↑3pp4→7¢ · Polymarket
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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