Hyperliquid airdrop by ....
Leader sits at 59% across 2 bound outcomes, runner-up at 27%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
December 31, 2027
Outcomes
2
winner-take-all
Runner-up
27¢
December 31, 2026
Spread
32pp
contested
24h volume
$26
thin orderbook
Closes
Jan 1, 2028
602 days
Venue
Polymarket
2 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Hyperliquid airdrop by ....? : December 31, 202
Analysis
This market reflects traders' collective view that Hyperliquid will conduct a token airdrop by December 31, 2027, with 74% confidence assigned to that year versus 28% for completion by end of 2026. The current leader pricing indicates meaningful uncertainty about timing, likely driven by Hyperliquid's development roadmap and precedent from comparable DeFi platforms. Resolution hinges on whether the project announces and executes an airdrop before the 2027 deadline. The stark difference between contract prices (70¢ vs. 28¢) suggests traders believe 2027 is substantially more probable than 2026, possibly reflecting typical project development cycles. Volume concentration in the 2026 contract ($3,437 in 24h) versus minimal activity in the 2027 contract suggests recent trading focused on near-term expectations, though the 2027 outcome currently commands higher implied probability.
- ›Hyperliquid's publicly stated tokenomics roadmap and any official airdrop timeline announcements
- ›Historical precedent from comparable derivatives/DeFi protocols regarding airdrop frequency and timing
- ›Project funding stage and need for decentralization-driven token distribution relative to development milestones
- ›Trading volume imbalance between 2026 and 2027 contracts indicates market uncertainty about the near-term deadline
- ›No reported scheduled announcement date visible in 24h contract activity, suggesting base case assumes multi-year development timeline
What moved the line
- May 6December 31, 2027↓14pp73→59¢ · Polymarket
- May 2December 31, 2027↑5pp69→74¢ · Polymarket
- May 7December 31, 2026↓4pp27→23¢ · Polymarket
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 2 contracts (59% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 2 min ago.