IA-01 Democratic Primary Winner
Leader sits at 94% across 3 bound outcomes, runner-up at 4%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Christina Bohannan
Outcomes
3
winner-take-all
Runner-up
4¢
Travis Terrell
Spread
90pp
dominant leader
24h volume
$195
thin orderbook
Closes
Jun 2, 2026
24 days
Venue
Polymarket
3 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
IA-01 Democratic Primary Winner
Analysis
This 37% probability represents the chance that a Democratic candidate wins Iowa's 1st Congressional District primary election. The current level reflects typical competitive dynamics in open-seat or contested Democratic primaries, where multiple candidates typically divide the electorate. The probability could shift based on fundraising reports, endorsements from established party figures, and turnout modeling in key precincts. The primary election date will provide the definitive resolution of this market. Democratic primary participation and candidate field consolidation closer to Election Day are the most significant factors that would move this estimate substantially higher or lower.
- ›Candidate field size and whether consolidation occurs before the primary vote
- ›Early fundraising totals and cash-on-hand reports filed with the Federal Election Commission
- ›Endorsements from sitting members of Congress or statewide Democratic officials
- ›Voter registration and turnout patterns in the district, particularly in core Democratic areas
- ›Whether the Democratic nominee faces a strong Republican general election candidate, which may influence primary voter perceptions of viability
Recently closed in election 2026
- Will a reconciliation bill passed the Senate before May 20, 2026last 94% · 1d
- Will John Fetterman leave the Democratic party before Jun 1, 2026last 16% · 1d
- Will the Democratic National Committee release a comprehensive post-election report of the 2024 election before Aug 1, 2026last 67% · 1d
- Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms: D Senate, R Houselast 3% · 1d
- What will any participating candidate say during California Governor Debatenolast 55% · 1d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 3 min ago.