IK Start vs. Tromsø IL - More Markets
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 44% across 7 Polymarket contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
—
not bound
Polymarket
44%
7 contracts
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$906
7 contracts
Closes
May 6, 2026
0 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
7 clusters across 7 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 22% of their title tokens — “Kawasaki Frontale vs. Tōkyō Verdy - More Markets: Tōkyō Verdy” vs “Beijing Guoan FC vs. Dalian Yingbo FC - More Markets: O/U 2.5”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Kawasaki Frontale vs. Tōkyō Verdy - More Markets: Tōkyō Verdy
Kawasaki Frontale vs. Tōkyō Verdy - More Markets: Tōkyō Verdy (-1.5)
0x2ae2eb…68c8
Cluster 2
Beijing Guoan FC vs. Dalian Yingbo FC - More Markets: O/U 2.5
Beijing Guoan FC vs. Dalian Yingbo FC - More Markets: O/U 2.5
0xd0a2f0…02d4
Cluster 3
Yunnan Yukun FC vs. Zhejiang Zhiye FC - More Markets: O/U 2.5
Yunnan Yukun FC vs. Zhejiang Zhiye FC - More Markets: O/U 2.5
0xc6f8d0…d7bf
Cluster 4
Wuhan San Zhen FC vs. Qingdao Hainiu FC - More Markets: O/U 2.5
Wuhan San Zhen FC vs. Qingdao Hainiu FC - More Markets: O/U 2.5
0x4612ca…3182
Cluster 5
Shanghai Haigang FC vs. Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC - More Markets: O/U 2.5
Shanghai Haigang FC vs. Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC - More Markets: O/U 2.5
0x64562d…92f6
Cluster 6
Vanraure Hachinohe FC vs. Shōnan Bellmāre - More Markets: O/U 3.5
Vanraure Hachinohe FC vs. Shōnan Bellmāre - More Markets: O/U 3.5
0xf8c905…86be
Cluster 7
Punjab FC vs. Chennaiyin FC - More Markets: Punjab FC
Punjab FC vs. Chennaiyin FC - More Markets: Punjab FC (-1.5)
0xea81e1…2c80
Analysis
This market reflects a 39% probability that IK Start will score more than their opponents in a match against Tromsø IL. The probability sits below even odds, suggesting bookmakers or traders view Tromsø as slight favorites or expect a lower-scoring game. Key factors affecting this probability include each team's recent goal-scoring form, their relative strength in the Norwegian football league, and any injuries or tactical adjustments heading into the match. The resolution will depend on the actual match outcome, which determines whether Start outscores Tromsø. Shifts in this probability would likely follow team news, changes in betting activity across other markets, or updated information about player availability affecting either side's offensive capability.
- ›IK Start's recent goals-for and goals-against statistics compared to Tromsø IL in league play
- ›Tromsø IL's home or away status and historical performance in similar matchups
- ›Available player rosters for both teams, particularly injuries to key forwards or defensive players
- ›The implied odds comparison between this market and other major sportsbooks for the same fixture
- ›Trading volume and price movement patterns on related markets like total goals or exact scoreline predictions
What moved the line
- May 6Tōkyō Verdy (-1.5)↓20pp26→6¢ · Polymarket
- May 6O/U 3.5↓20pp40→20¢ · Polymarket
- May 6O/U 2.5↑9pp62→71¢ · Polymarket
- May 6Punjab FC (-1.5)↓3pp37→34¢ · Polymarket
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 2 d ago.