SimpleFunctions
Winner-take-all · 3 outcomes3 contractsPolymarketrefreshed 6 min agoCloses May 12, 2026 · 3d

Incheon United FC vs. Pohang Steelers FC

Leader sits at 42% across 3 bound outcomes, runner-up at 32%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.

Leader probability

42%

Incheon United FC

runner-up 32¢leader 42¢

Outcomes

3

winner-take-all

Runner-up

32¢

Draw (Incheon United FC vs.

Spread

10pp

contested

24h volume

$10

thin orderbook

Closes

May 12, 2026

3 days

Venue

Polymarket

3 bound

30-day trend

0%50%100%-30d-3w-2w-1wtodayIncheon United FC: 42% (2 days, 2 points)Incheon United FC: 42% on 2026-05-08Draw (Incheon United FC vs. Pohang Steelers FC): 30% on 2026-05-08Pohang Steelers FC: 31% (2 days, 2 points)Pohang Steelers FC: 31% on 2026-05-08
Incheon United FC42¢Draw (Incheon United FC vs. Pohang Steelers FC)30¢Pohang Steelers FC31¢
Top 3 candidates by current price · 2d

Bracket family

How the bracket ladder is priced.

Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.

Analysis

Markets are pricing Incheon United FC as the slight favorite over Pohang Steelers FC in an upcoming K League match, with Incheon at 42% implied probability compared to Pohang at 31% and a 27% chance of a draw. The favorite reflects Incheon's recent form, head-to-head record, or home advantage if applicable. Key variables pushing the odds include team injury status, recent performance streaks, and tactical matchups. The resolution depends entirely on the match result itself. Current trading volume is minimal, suggesting limited recent activity, which may indicate either pre-match positioning or low market interest at this stage of the fixture. Shifts in the odds would likely reflect late-breaking roster changes, weather conditions, or significant betting flows as the match approaches.

  • Incheon's current league standings and win-loss record versus Pohang's performance in the 2026 K League season
  • Head-to-head historical results and goal differential between these two teams in recent matchups
  • Absence or presence of key players due to injury, suspension, or international call-ups for either squad
  • Home-field advantage and venue conditions if the match is being played at a specific team's stadium
  • Recent form over the last 5-10 matches for each team, including clean sheets, goals scored, and consistency metrics

Recently closed in general

These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

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Adjacent prediction questions.

How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.

Last updated on this page: 6 min ago.