SimpleFunctions
Winner-take-all · 9 outcomes9 contractsPolymarketrefreshed 6 min agoCloses May 12, 2026 · 3d15pp · 24h

Incheon United FC vs. Pohang Steelers FC - More Markets

Leader sits at 65% across 9 bound outcomes, runner-up at 52%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.

Leader probability

65%

O/U 1.5

runner-up 52¢leader 65¢

Outcomes

9

winner-take-all

Runner-up

52¢

O/U 2.5

Spread

13pp

contested

24h volume

$0

thin orderbook

Closes

May 12, 2026

3 days

Venue

Polymarket

9 bound

30-day trend

0%50%100%-30d-3w-2w-1wtodayO/U 1.5: 63% on 2026-05-08Both Teams to Score: 50% (2 days, 2 points)Both Teams to Score: 50% on 2026-05-08Incheon United FC (-1.5): 33% (2 days, 2 points)Incheon United FC (-1.5): 33% on 2026-05-08
O/U 1.563¢Both Teams to Score50¢Incheon United FC (-1.5)33¢
Top 3 candidates by current price · 2d

Bracket family

How the bracket ladder is priced.

Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.

Analysis

This market estimates a 50% probability that both Incheon United FC and Pohang Steelers FC score at least one goal each in their matchup. The contract pricing reflects moderate uncertainty about offensive performance from both teams, with the runner-up outcome (Incheon United at -1.5 goals) priced at 33%, suggesting traders view Incheon as slight favorites defensively. The outcome depends on team form, defensive vulnerabilities, and tactical approach—factors that typically shift with recent match results, injury status, and head-to-head history. The resolution occurs after the match concludes, making recent offensive and defensive statistics from both squads the primary drivers of current pricing. Thin trading volume ($0 over 24 hours) indicates limited market liquidity and potentially wider bid-ask spreads, which may not reflect the true consensus among frequent bettors.

  • Incheon United and Pohang Steelers' combined expected goals (xG) in their last 3-5 matches relative to their season averages
  • Defensive records: goals conceded per match for each team and whether key defenders or goalkeepers are unavailable
  • Head-to-head scoring patterns in previous meetings between these two clubs
  • Current league position and offensive output trends for both teams in the weeks leading up to match day
  • Match venue (home/away split) and any tactical adjustments either team has recently implemented

What moved the line

  • May 8Pohang Steelers FC (-1.5)3pp3229¢ · Polymarket
  • May 8Incheon United FC (-2.5)3pp2528¢ · Polymarket

Recently closed in general

These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

More like this

Adjacent prediction questions.

How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.

Last updated on this page: 6 min ago.