Will Scott McLaughlin be the Grand Prix of Indianapolis Winner
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 18% across 4 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
18%
4 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$21K
4 contracts
Closes
May 24, 2026
15 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
4 clusters across 4 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will Alex Palou be the Grand Prix of Indianapolis Winner
Will Alex Palou be the Grand Prix of Indianapolis Winner?: Alex Palou
KXINDYCARRACE-INDI26-ALPA
Cluster 2
Will Christian Lundgaard be the Grand Prix of Indianapolis Winner
Will Christian Lundgaard be the Grand Prix of Indianapolis Winner?: Christian Lundgaard
KXINDYCARRACE-INDI26-CHLU
Cluster 3
Will Graham Rahal be the Grand Prix of Indianapolis Winner
Will Graham Rahal be the Grand Prix of Indianapolis Winner?: Graham Rahal
KXINDYCARRACE-INDI26-GRRA
Cluster 4
Will Kyle Kirkwood be the Grand Prix of Indianapolis Winner
Will Kyle Kirkwood be the Grand Prix of Indianapolis Winner?: Kyle Kirkwood
KXINDYCARRACE-INDI26-KYKI
What moved the line
- May 8Alex Palou↓4pp55→51¢ · Kalshi
- May 8Christian Lundgaard↑3pp5→8¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
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In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 3 min ago.