IPL
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 39% across 5 Polymarket contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
—
not bound
Polymarket
39%
5 contracts
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$8K
5 contracts
Closes
Jun 1, 2026
2 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
2 clusters across 5 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
IPL: Orange Cap Winner
Cluster 2
IPL: Purple Cap Winner
IPL: Purple Cap Winner: Kagiso Rabada
0x6be253…1b6a
IPL: Purple Cap Winner: Bhuvneshwar Kumar
0x7c172b…8ba8
Analysis
This 17% probability reflects the aggregate market assessment of whether a specific player will win the Orange Cap (leading run-scorer award) in the Indian Premier League tournament. The current season's performance data and remaining matches are the primary drivers of these odds. Early-season form, injury status, and team batting order changes directly influence which batsmen accumulate the most runs. The season concludes with the IPL final, which represents the last opportunity for players to add to their run totals and could dramatically shift the leader. Markets are currently spreading probability across multiple contenders, with no single player commanding dominant odds, suggesting competitive batting performances across franchises.
- ›Yashasvi Jaiswal at 6¢ shows minimal market confidence despite being listed, while Sai Sudharsan at 32¢ represents the highest single-contract probability among top contenders
- ›High 24-hour trading volumes ($100-114) on Jaiswal, Sooryavanshi, and Kishan indicate active market engagement with uncertainty about the outcome
- ›The distribution across five named contenders with probabilities ranging from 6¢ to 32¢ suggests no clear statistical favorite and competitive scoring dynamics
- ›Orange Cap outcomes depend on remaining matches scheduled, player availability, and team strategies that prioritize batting depth
- ›The 17% aggregate masks significant probability mass: the five listed contracts total approximately 93¢, with 7¢ distributed across other potential winners
What moved the line
- May 28Orange Cap Winner: Vaibhav Sooryavanshi↑19pp28→47¢ · Polymarket
- May 26Purple Cap Winner: Bhuvneshwar Kumar↓17pp70→53¢ · Polymarket
- May 27Orange Cap Winner: Vaibhav Sooryavanshi↑12pp16→28¢ · Polymarket
- May 28Orange Cap Winner: Shubman Gill↓8pp35→27¢ · Polymarket
- May 27Orange Cap Winner: Shubman Gill↑7pp28→35¢ · Polymarket
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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