Iraq vs. Norway
Leader sits at 78% across 3 bound outcomes, runner-up at 15%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Norway
Outcomes
3
winner-take-all
Runner-up
15¢
Draw (Iraq vs. Norway)
Spread
63pp
dominant leader
24h volume
$325
thin orderbook
Closes
Jun 16, 2026
38 days
Venue
Polymarket
3 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Iraq vs. Norway
Analysis
This probability reflects market expectations that Iraq will defeat Norway in a competition. The 76% probability on the leading contract suggests strong confidence in an Iraq victory, though the relatively low absolute prices across contracts ($0.10 for the top market) and modest trading volumes indicate limited market engagement. The outcome likely depends on the specific nature of the competition—whether it's sports, economics, or another domain. Key variables include the comparative strength of each nation in the relevant category, any recent performance trends, and whether external factors like injuries, political developments, or regulatory changes might affect the result. The certainty reflected in the 76% level could shift substantially if new information emerges about either country's preparation, capability, or circumstances relevant to the competition.
- ›The Iraq contract trades at 10¢ with $11 in 24-hour volume, the highest liquidity among Iraq-Norway markets, suggesting this is the primary price discovery mechanism
- ›Norway appears in multiple concurrent contracts (vs. Senegal at 48¢, vs. France at 32¢) with varying probability levels, indicating market uncertainty about Norway's performance across different matchups
- ›The runner-up outcome at 17% suggests a meaningful tail scenario, with 7% unaccounted for in the three bound contracts, indicating residual market uncertainty
- ›Polymarket data shows very low volumes ($0-$5) on several related contracts, limiting confidence in price stability and suggesting thin liquidity outside the Iraq-Norway pair
- ›The specific domain of competition (sports, economic, or other metric) directly determines which country's comparative advantages are relevant to the resolution
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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