Will Lachlan Gaskell win the Malla vs Gaskell
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 49% across 8 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
49%
8 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$2K
8 contracts
Closes
May 20, 2026
11 days
Bracket families
8 clusters across 8 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will Uisung Park win the Mo vs Park: M15 Wuning Semifinal match
Will Uisung Park win the Mo vs Park: M15 Wuning Semifinal match?: Uisung Park
KXITFMATCH-26MAY08MOXPAR-PAR
Cluster 2
Will Yecong Mo win the Mo vs Park: M15 Wuning Semifinal match
Will Yecong Mo win the Mo vs Park: M15 Wuning Semifinal match?: Yecong Mo
KXITFMATCH-26MAY08MOXPAR-MOX
Cluster 3
Will Mitsuki Wei Kang Leong win the Leong vs Bouzige: M25 Nakhon Pathom Semifinal match
Cluster 4
Will Taisei Ichikawa win the Ichikawa vs Choe: M15 Wuning Semifinal match
Will Taisei Ichikawa win the Ichikawa vs Choe: M15 Wuning Semifinal match?: Taisei Ichikawa
KXITFMATCH-26MAY08ICHCHO-ICH
Cluster 5
Will Moerani Bouzige win the Leong vs Bouzige: M25 Nakhon Pathom Semifinal match
Cluster 6
Will Matthew Dellavedova win the Dellavedova vs Kumasaka: M25 Nakhon Pathom Semifinal match
Cluster 7
Will Jaesung Choe win the Ichikawa vs Choe: M15 Wuning Semifinal match
Will Jaesung Choe win the Ichikawa vs Choe: M15 Wuning Semifinal match?: Jaesung Choe
KXITFMATCH-26MAY08ICHCHO-CHO
Cluster 8
Will Takuya Kumasaka win the Dellavedova vs Kumasaka: M25 Nakhon Pathom Semifinal match
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 4 h ago.