SimpleFunctions
ClosedLast odds shown below are frozen at close (May 6, 2026). Future questions tracked on /odds.
11 contractsPolymarketclosed 2 d agoCloses May 6, 2026 · 0d

Jaguares de Córdoba FC vs. Cúcuta Deportivo FC - More Markets: Cúcuta Deportivo FC (-2.5)

Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 26% across 11 Polymarket contracts.

Implied probability

26%
0%50%100%

Kalshi

not bound

Polymarket

26%

11 contracts

Cross-venue gap

single venue

24h move

no pin

24h volume

$968

11 contracts

Closes

May 6, 2026

0 days

30-day trend

0%50%100%-30d-3w-2w-1wtodayAggregate: 29% (4 days, 4 points)Aggregate: 29% on 2026-05-07
Aggregate of 11 contracts · 4d

Bracket families

3 clusters across 11 contracts.

These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.

Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters

The top two clusters share only 20% of their title tokens — “Deportivo La Guaira FC vs. Club Bolívar - More Markets” vs “Kawasaki Frontale vs. Tōkyō Verdy - More Markets: Tōkyō Verdy”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.

Analysis

This market reflects a 33% probability that Cúcuta Deportivo FC will win by more than 2.5 goals against Jaguares de Córdoba FC. The relatively low probability suggests market participants expect either a close match or a Jaguares victory. Key drivers of this level include recent form and head-to-head records between the Colombian clubs, as well as lineup availability and home-field advantage. The match itself, scheduled for its kickoff date, will directly resolve this contract once final results are confirmed. Current trading volume on related markets remains modest, indicating limited liquidity around this specific fixture and suggesting the probability may shift as more information becomes available closer to game time.

  • Cúcuta's recent goal-scoring record and whether they've consistently achieved 3+ goal margins in recent fixtures
  • Jaguares' defensive performance metrics and their typical goal concession rate in home matches
  • Head-to-head historical results between these teams, particularly margin of victory patterns
  • Team news regarding key players, injuries, or suspensions that could impact attacking or defensive capability
  • Market depth and trading activity—whether increased volume reflects new information or remains thin relative to other Colombian football matches

What moved the line

  • May 7Both Teams to Score53pp47100¢ · Polymarket
  • May 7O/U 2.541pp410¢ · Polymarket
  • May 7O/U 1.536pp64100¢ · Polymarket
  • May 6Tōkyō Verdy (-1.5)20pp266¢ · Polymarket
  • May 6Both Teams to Score16pp6347¢ · Polymarket

Recently closed in general

These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

More like this

Adjacent prediction questions.

How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.

Last updated on this page: 2 d ago.