Jaguares de Córdoba FC vs. Cúcuta Deportivo FC - More Markets: Cúcuta Deportivo FC (-2.5)
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 26% across 11 Polymarket contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
—
not bound
Polymarket
26%
11 contracts
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$968
11 contracts
Closes
May 6, 2026
0 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
3 clusters across 11 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 20% of their title tokens — “Deportivo La Guaira FC vs. Club Bolívar - More Markets” vs “Kawasaki Frontale vs. Tōkyō Verdy - More Markets: Tōkyō Verdy”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Deportivo La Guaira FC vs. Club Bolívar - More Markets
Deportivo La Guaira FC vs. Club Bolívar - More Markets: O/U 1.5
0xbd91ad…e563
Deportivo La Guaira FC vs. Club Bolívar - More Markets: Both Teams to Score
0x7dbbcc…5def
Deportivo La Guaira FC vs. Club Bolívar - More Markets: O/U 2.5
0x918a9b…2eb7
Deportivo La Guaira FC vs. Club Bolívar - More Markets: O/U 3.5
0x235d60…e322
Deportivo La Guaira FC vs. Club Bolívar - More Markets: O/U 4.5
0x751636…dd07
Deportivo La Guaira FC vs. Club Bolívar - More Markets: Club Bolívar (-1.5)
0xf9ba9e…120c
Deportivo La Guaira FC vs. Club Bolívar - More Markets: Deportivo La Guaira FC (-1.5)
0xf2f098…756f
Deportivo La Guaira FC vs. Club Bolívar - More Markets: Deportivo La Guaira FC (-2.5)
0x457f50…fc0a
Deportivo La Guaira FC vs. Club Bolívar - More Markets: Club Bolívar (-2.5)
0x0a4cf4…a0fc
Cluster 2
Kawasaki Frontale vs. Tōkyō Verdy - More Markets: Tōkyō Verdy
Kawasaki Frontale vs. Tōkyō Verdy - More Markets: Tōkyō Verdy (-1.5)
0x2ae2eb…68c8
Cluster 3
Wuhan San Zhen FC vs. Qingdao Hainiu FC - More Markets: O/U 2.5
Wuhan San Zhen FC vs. Qingdao Hainiu FC - More Markets: O/U 2.5
0x4612ca…3182
Analysis
This market reflects a 33% probability that Cúcuta Deportivo FC will win by more than 2.5 goals against Jaguares de Córdoba FC. The relatively low probability suggests market participants expect either a close match or a Jaguares victory. Key drivers of this level include recent form and head-to-head records between the Colombian clubs, as well as lineup availability and home-field advantage. The match itself, scheduled for its kickoff date, will directly resolve this contract once final results are confirmed. Current trading volume on related markets remains modest, indicating limited liquidity around this specific fixture and suggesting the probability may shift as more information becomes available closer to game time.
- ›Cúcuta's recent goal-scoring record and whether they've consistently achieved 3+ goal margins in recent fixtures
- ›Jaguares' defensive performance metrics and their typical goal concession rate in home matches
- ›Head-to-head historical results between these teams, particularly margin of victory patterns
- ›Team news regarding key players, injuries, or suspensions that could impact attacking or defensive capability
- ›Market depth and trading activity—whether increased volume reflects new information or remains thin relative to other Colombian football matches
What moved the line
- May 7Both Teams to Score↑53pp47→100¢ · Polymarket
- May 7O/U 2.5↓41pp41→0¢ · Polymarket
- May 7O/U 1.5↑36pp64→100¢ · Polymarket
- May 6Tōkyō Verdy (-1.5)↓20pp26→6¢ · Polymarket
- May 6Both Teams to Score↓16pp63→47¢ · Polymarket
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 2 d ago.