SimpleFunctions
Winner-take-all · 13 outcomes13 contractsPolymarketrefreshed 3 min agoCloses Jun 8, 2026 · 30d

Japan J. League

Leader sits at 50% across 13 bound outcomes, runner-up at 50%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.

Leader probability

50%

Winner: Kashima Antlers

runner-up 50¢leader 50¢

Outcomes

13

winner-take-all

Runner-up

50¢

Winner: Sanfrecce Hiroshima

Spread

0pp

contested

24h volume

$0

thin orderbook

Closes

Jun 8, 2026

30 days

Venue

Polymarket

13 bound

30-day trend

0%50%100%-30d-3w-2w-1wtodayWinner: Kashima Antlers: 48% (11 days, 10 points)Winner: Kashima Antlers: 48% on 2026-05-08Winner: Sanfrecce Hiroshima: 48% (11 days, 11 points)Winner: Sanfrecce Hiroshima: 48% on 2026-05-08Winner: Kyoto Sanga: 46% (11 days, 3 points)Winner: Kyoto Sanga: 46% on 2026-04-30
Winner: Kashima Antlers48¢Winner: Sanfrecce Hiroshima48¢Winner: Kyoto Sanga46¢
Top 3 candidates by current price · 11d

Bracket family

How the bracket ladder is priced.

Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.

Analysis

This represents the estimated probability that a specific team will win Japan's J. League championship during the 2026 season. The current 50% level reflects one team being priced as the leading contender, with uncertainty driven by recent performance metrics, squad depth, and injury status. The upcoming months of league matches will clarify competitive positioning as standings develop and teams' true form becomes apparent through actual results. Key catalysts include fixture outcomes against direct rivals and any significant roster changes before the mid-season transfer window closes.

  • Current league standings and point differential relative to competing teams as of May 2026
  • Injury status of key players, particularly starting forwards and defensive lineups
  • Recent head-to-head results and goal differential in direct matchups against other title contenders
  • Historical win rates in away matches, which typically account for roughly half of season points
  • Squad depth and consistency through the remaining fixture schedule, particularly performance in consecutive games

Recently closed in general

These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

More like this

Adjacent prediction questions.

How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.

Last updated on this page: 3 min ago.