Jeffrey Epstein confirmed to be alive before 2027
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 6% across 1 Polymarket contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
—
not bound
Polymarket
6%
1 contract
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$84K
1 contracts
Closes
Dec 31, 2026
236 days
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Jeffrey Epstein confirmed to be alive before 2027
Jeffrey Epstein confirmed to be alive before 2027?
0x1bb95f…cab3
Analysis
This contract would resolve positively only if Jeffrey Epstein, who died in federal custody in August 2019, is confirmed to be alive before the end of 2026. The 5% probability reflects the extremely low likelihood of such confirmation occurring. For the probability to move significantly higher, new credible evidence would need to emerge—such as verifiable sightings, DNA confirmation, or an official statement from authorities—contradicting the documented death and subsequent autopsy findings. The contract depends entirely on whether any authoritative body produces evidence of his survival, which becomes less plausible as time passes from the original 2019 events. No scheduled government disclosure or court proceeding currently exists that would definitively resolve this question by year-end.
- ›Official cause of death was determined by medical examiner following autopsy procedures in 2019; overturning this would require extraordinary evidence from law enforcement or medical authorities
- ›No credible sightings or physical evidence of Epstein being alive have emerged in the years since his death; the threshold for 'confirmation' is material and verifiable, not speculative
- ›The contract requires confirmation before December 31, 2026, leaving approximately 8 months for such evidence to surface and be publicly validated
- ›Any confirmation would likely require either a legal proceeding, government statement, or media investigation presenting documented proof rather than rumor or conspiracy claims
- ›The extremely low market probability (5%) suggests traders assess the probability of overlooked survival and subsequent confirmation as remote given available public information
Recently closed in general
- What will Donald Trump say during CNBClast 95% · 1d
- Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms: D Senate, R Houselast 3% · 1d
- Will any member of Trump's Cabinet leave before Aug 2026last 85% · 1d
- What will any participating candidate say during South Carolina GOP gubernatorial debatenolast 7% · 1d
- FC Gifu vs. Matsumoto Yamaga FC - More Marketslast 74% · 2d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 1 contract (6% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 4 min ago.