Jeju SK FC vs. FC Seoul
Leader sits at 44% across 3 bound outcomes, runner-up at 30%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
FC Seoul
Outcomes
3
winner-take-all
Runner-up
30¢
Draw (Jeju SK FC vs. FC Seou
Spread
14pp
contested
24h volume
$8K
modest
Closes
May 9, 2026
0 days
Venue
Polymarket
3 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Jeju SK FC vs. FC Seoul
Analysis
This probability reflects traders' assessment that Jeju SK FC has a 46% chance of winning an upcoming match against FC Seoul, with a 34% probability assigned to a draw. The market is pricing Jeju SK FC as a slight favorite rather than a heavy one. The current pricing likely reflects recent form, head-to-head records, home/away status, and squad composition between the two K League clubs. Key variables moving this probability would include team injuries, recent performance trends, and betting market movements as the match date approaches. The match itself will resolve the contract when the final whistle sounds and an official result is recorded. Until then, the probability may shift based on new information about player availability, weather conditions, or significant tactical changes announced by either manager.
- ›Current odds show Jeju SK FC at 46% and a draw at 34%, leaving FC Seoul at approximately 20%, indicating the market views this as competitive but favors Jeju slightly
- ›Zero 24-hour trading volume on both visible contracts suggests limited recent market activity and potentially stale pricing
- ›The probability is driven by static factors (historical head-to-head, current league standings, squad quality) rather than dynamic pre-match information since no volume indicates no new information flow
- ›A draw outcome receiving 34% probability is material, suggesting the market expects a relatively tight, defensively-organized match rather than a decisive result
- ›Resolution depends entirely on the official match result; injuries, weather, or tactical announcements in the days before kick-off could cause significant probability shifts if trading resumes
What moved the line
- May 7Jeju SK FC↓3pp26→23¢ · Polymarket
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 3 h ago.