SimpleFunctions
ClosedLast odds shown below are frozen at close (May 6, 2026). Future questions tracked on /odds.
Winner-take-all · 3 outcomes3 contractsPolymarketclosed 2 d agoCloses May 5, 2026 · 0d

Jeonbuk Hyundai Motors FC vs. Gwangju FC

Leader sits at 75% across 3 bound outcomes, runner-up at 18%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.

Leader probability

75%

Jeonbuk Hyundai Motors FC

runner-up 18¢leader 75¢

Outcomes

3

winner-take-all

Runner-up

18¢

Draw (Jeonbuk Hyundai Motors

Spread

57pp

dominant leader

24h volume

$2K

modest

Closes

May 5, 2026

0 days

Venue

Polymarket

3 bound

30-day trend

0%50%100%-30d-3w-2w-1wtodayJeonbuk Hyundai Motors FC: 71% (3 days, 3 points)Jeonbuk Hyundai Motors FC: 71% on 2026-05-03Draw (Jeonbuk Hyundai Motors FC vs. Gwangju FC): 19% (3 days, 3 points)Draw (Jeonbuk Hyundai Motors FC vs. Gwangju FC): 19% on 2026-05-03Gwangju FC: 10% (3 days, 3 points)Gwangju FC: 10% on 2026-05-03
Jeonbuk Hyundai Motors FC71¢Draw (Jeonbuk Hyundai Motors FC vs. Gwangju FC)19¢Gwangju FC10¢
Top 3 candidates by current price · 3d

Bracket family

How the bracket ladder is priced.

Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.

Analysis

This market reflects an expectation that Jeonbuk Hyundai Motors FC will win an upcoming match against Gwangju FC, with a 72% probability assigned to a Jeonbuk victory. The high confidence in Jeonbuk likely reflects team-strength metrics, recent form, or home-field advantage, while the 20% probability on a draw suggests the market sees meaningful defensive capability from Gwangju. The main variables shifting this probability would be injury reports, recent league performance, or head-to-head historical records between the clubs. Resolution will occur at the final whistle of the scheduled fixture, when the actual outcome becomes known and betting contracts settle accordingly.

  • Relative league standings and season-to-date win/loss records for both clubs as of early May 2026
  • Recent form over the past 5–10 matches: win streaks, goals conceded, and offensive output
  • Head-to-head historical record and any significant tactical mismatches between the two teams
  • Confirmed injury or suspension status of key players for either squad before kickoff
  • Home or away designation and any measurable home-field advantage in the K League or similar competitions

What moved the line

  • May 3Gwangju FC18pp2810¢ · Polymarket
  • May 3Jeonbuk Hyundai Motors FC9pp6271¢ · Polymarket
  • May 2Jeonbuk Hyundai Motors FC8pp5462¢ · Polymarket
  • May 3Draw (Jeonbuk Hyundai Motors FC vs. Gwangju FC)8pp2719¢ · Polymarket
  • May 2Gwangju FC5pp3328¢ · Polymarket

Recently closed in general

These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

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How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.

Last updated on this page: 2 d ago.