Will Joy Morrissey join Reform UK before June 2026
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 5% across 3 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
5%
3 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$0
3 contracts
Closes
Jun 1, 2026
23 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
3 clusters across 3 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will Mark Francois join Reform UK before June 2026
Will Mark Francois join Reform UK before June 2026?: Mark Francois
KXJOINREFORM-26-MFRA
Cluster 2
Will Esther McVey join Reform UK before June 2026
Will Esther McVey join Reform UK before June 2026?: Esther McVey
KXJOINREFORM-26-EMCV
Cluster 3
Will Joy Morrissey join Reform UK before June 2026
Will Joy Morrissey join Reform UK before June 2026?: Joy Morrissey
KXJOINREFORM-26-JMOR
Analysis
This probability represents the likelihood that Joy Morrissey, a current Conservative MP, will formally join the Reform UK party before the end of June 2026. The 5% assessment reflects that party switching mid-parliament is uncommon, though increasing numbers of Conservative MPs have migrated to Reform recently. The main factors keeping this probability low are Morrissey's established position within the Conservative Party and typical political inertia around defections. However, any movement would likely follow broader Conservative-to-Reform migration patterns or specific ideological divisions. The uncertainty will largely resolve through the end of June 2026, as any defection would be a public announcement rather than dependent on an external event.
- ›Morrissey's current status as a Conservative MP with no publicly stated intent to defect as of May 2026
- ›The relative frequency of mid-parliament defections from Conservative to Reform, with recent months showing elevated activity compared to historical norms
- ›Comparable defection probabilities for similar Conservative MPs (Esther McVey at 5%, Mark Francois at 7%) suggesting analyst consensus on defection likelihood within this cohort
- ›The time horizon of only four weeks remaining, limiting opportunity for major political events to trigger defection decisions
- ›Any public statements or actions by Morrissey regarding party satisfaction or alignment with Reform policies that might signal shifting intentions
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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