Will Doug Petno succeed Jamie Dimon as CEO of JPMorgan
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 25% across 4 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
25%
4 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$0
4 contracts
Closes
Jan 1, 2030
1333 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
4 clusters across 4 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will Jennifer Piepszak succeed Jamie Dimon as CEO of JPMorgan
Will Jennifer Piepszak succeed Jamie Dimon as CEO of JPMorgan?: Jennifer Piepszak
KXJPMCEONEW-30-JP
Cluster 2
Will Marianne Lake succeed Jamie Dimon as CEO of JPMorgan
Will Marianne Lake succeed Jamie Dimon as CEO of JPMorgan?: Marianne Lake
KXJPMCEONEW-30-ML
Cluster 3
Will Doug Petno succeed Jamie Dimon as CEO of JPMorgan
Will Doug Petno succeed Jamie Dimon as CEO of JPMorgan?: Doug Petno
KXJPMCEONEW-30-DP
Cluster 4
Will Troy Rohrbaugh succeed Jamie Dimon as CEO of JPMorgan
Will Troy Rohrbaugh succeed Jamie Dimon as CEO of JPMorgan?: Troy Rohrbaugh
KXJPMCEONEW-30-TR
Analysis
This 25% probability reflects the market's assessment that Doug Petno has roughly a one-in-four chance of becoming JPMorgan's next CEO following Jamie Dimon's eventual departure. Dimon, who is 60 years old, has not announced a retirement timeline, making the succession question inherently speculative. The probability is influenced by Petno's current position within the bank's leadership hierarchy, his demonstrated capabilities, and competition from other potential internal or external candidates. Key factors that could shift this estimate include announcements about Dimon's succession plans, Petno's performance in high-visibility roles, changes in regulatory environment affecting CEO selection criteria, and whether JPMorgan signals a preference for internal versus external candidates. Without a clear timeline or formal announcement from JPMorgan's board, the market assigns meaningful probability to multiple potential outcomes.
- ›Dimon's age (60) and lack of publicly stated retirement date create uncertainty about succession timing and urgency
- ›Petno's current role and track record in JPMorgan's leadership pipeline relative to other identified candidates
- ›Board composition and historical CEO selection patterns at JPMorgan (internal promotion vs. external hire)
- ›Regulatory and shareholder expectations regarding banking CEO transitions and qualifications
- ›No official succession plan announcement as of the reference date, leaving substantial ambiguity
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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