Kagoshima United FC vs. Ōita Trinita - More Markets
Leader sits at 67% across 9 bound outcomes, runner-up at 50%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
O/U 1.5
Outcomes
9
winner-take-all
Runner-up
50¢
Both Teams to Score
Spread
17pp
contested
24h volume
$73
thin orderbook
Closes
May 6, 2026
0 days
Venue
Polymarket
9 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Kagoshima United FC vs. Ōita Trinita - More Markets
Kagoshima United FC vs. Ōita Trinita - More Markets: O/U 4.5
0x58a705…db3a
Kagoshima United FC vs. Ōita Trinita - More Markets: Ōita Trinita (-2.5)
0x181e34…d370
Kagoshima United FC vs. Ōita Trinita - More Markets: Ōita Trinita (-1.5)
0x88fc7b…35d4
Kagoshima United FC vs. Ōita Trinita - More Markets: Both Teams to Score
0xe0cdd9…7a6d
Kagoshima United FC vs. Ōita Trinita - More Markets: O/U 3.5
0xc65258…6bb8
Kagoshima United FC vs. Ōita Trinita - More Markets: O/U 2.5
0x439e35…82f7
Kagoshima United FC vs. Ōita Trinita - More Markets: O/U 1.5
0xc0ca93…26cd
Kagoshima United FC vs. Ōita Trinita - More Markets: Kagoshima United FC (-2.5)
0xf7b2d5…42fa
Kagoshima United FC vs. Ōita Trinita - More Markets: Kagoshima United FC (-1.5)
0x9d9d39…1252
Analysis
This market prices Kagoshima United FC at a 51% implied probability of winning against Ōita Trinita in an upcoming J2 League matchup. The probability reflects modest confidence in a Kagoshima victory, with modest backing from traders on Polymarket despite near-zero volume in the most recent 24 hours. The outcome hinges on current team form, head-to-head records, injury status, and home-field advantage factors typical of professional soccer matches. Resolution will occur on the scheduled match date when the final result is determined. Recent contract activity shows minimal liquidity, suggesting limited trader conviction or lack of ongoing market engagement with this specific fixture.
- ›Current market price of 51% indicates a slightly favored outcome rather than near-parity; the runner-up sits 19 percentage points lower at 32%
- ›No volume recorded in the Kagoshima-Ōita contract over the past 24 hours, suggesting limited active trading and potential illiquidity that could affect price reliability
- ›The Ōita Trinita spread contract (-2.5) is priced at 34¢, providing a secondary data point on market perception of relative team strength
- ›J2 League scheduling and both teams' recent win-loss records, goal differential, and head-to-head history would typically drive directional shifts in match probabilities
- ›Match date and venue details would determine home-field effects and fatigue factors for either team ahead of kick-off
What moved the line
- May 6O/U 2.5↓34pp53→19¢ · Polymarket
- May 6Kagoshima United FC (-2.5)↓32pp37→5¢ · Polymarket
- May 6Ōita Trinita (-1.5)↓29pp38→9¢ · Polymarket
- May 6Ōita Trinita (-2.5)↓27pp38→11¢ · Polymarket
- May 6O/U 4.5↓21pp34→13¢ · Polymarket
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 1 d ago.