Will Kanye West visit Israel by June 30
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 5% across 1 Polymarket contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
—
not bound
Polymarket
5%
1 contract
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$5K
1 contracts
Closes
Jun 30, 2026
52 days
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will Kanye West visit Israel by June 30
Will Kanye West visit Israel by June 30?
0xcb8a51…8952
Analysis
This contract asks whether Kanye West will visit Israel between now and June 30, 2026—a timeframe of roughly four weeks. The 18% probability reflects a low likelihood of such a visit occurring in this narrow window. The current level is driven primarily by the lack of announced travel plans and West's recent focus on other pursuits, balanced against the possibility of unexpected or spontaneous travel. A higher probability on the longer-term Kalshi contract (62% by January 1, 2027) suggests markets view an Israel visit as more plausible over an eight-month period than within the next month. The main resolution catalyst will be either an official announcement of travel plans, social media activity suggesting imminent travel, or the passage of the June 30 deadline itself.
- ›No publicly announced Israel travel plans as of May 2026
- ›The 44-point probability gap between the June 30 deadline (18%) and the January 1, 2027 deadline (62%) suggests markets expect any potential visit to occur after summer
- ›West's recent activity and touring schedule would need to include or accommodate an Israel stop
- ›Any visa, security, or logistical barriers that might prevent travel within the compressed four-week timeframe
- ›Social media activity or statements from West regarding Middle East visits or geopolitical engagement
What moved the line
- May 2Will Kanye West visit Israel by June 30?↓9pp26→17¢ · Polymarket
- May 6Will Kanye West visit Israel by June 30?↓5pp16→11¢ · Polymarket
- May 7Will Kanye West visit Israel by June 30?↓3pp11→8¢ · Polymarket
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 1 contract (5% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 5 min ago.